Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Tuning Up Techniques For 1992
This marks my twentieth year publishing an equity model portfolio with a sector focus.
View From The North Country
Each January we publish the gold book (Perception II) before this, the green book. So don't blame the post office this month, blame Steve Leuthold.
The Year That Was
1991 began on a grim note.
“When The Bears Have Thanksgiving…..”
As I recall, at one time I checked out the accuracy of this stock market folklore and it seemed to work pretty well. I think it will prove true again in 1991.
Today’s Stock Market Concerns
With no strong evidence of an economic rebound, an increasing number of professionals are having second thoughts. Maybe the recession is not over. Maybe 1992 will feature a second leg down. More than anything, I believe these “second thoughts” are the root cause of the current correction.
View from the North Country
Snow Emergency Declared At The Leuthold Group...Holiday Wishes To All...Polling The Pro's (Leuthold Clients)...Northwest Airlines Battle Rages On...Mike Hamilton Frequent NWA Flier And Constant Skeptic Of NWA's Financial Aid Package
Avoiding 1991’s P/E Trap
While operating earnings may even now be on the road to recovery, an accounting rule change could produce a virtual earnings wipeout in fourth quarter reported earnings.
Major Trend Index Remains Bullish
As this publication projected, the stock market in 1991 made it through October without being blitzed, sacked, or otherwise traumatized. It turned out to be a pretty dull month with an upside tilt.
An Upside Economic Surprise?
We have been finding it hard to visualize a strong economic recovery developing in 1992. Would you be surprised to see 1992 produce one or two quarters of 5% real GNP growth? Well my friend, economist Peter L. Bernstein, would not be at all surprised to see this occur.
What Seven Year Cycle?
While we currently believe small cap and secondary stocks will be superior performers in the foreseeable future, we have no idea how long this phase might last. Don't pay any attention to this seven year cycle hogwash.
View from the North Country
Where Do We Go For Good Investment Returns Now?... Polling The Pro's For Our Client's Current Stock Market Attitudes...Taking Another Look At The New S&P Midcap Index
Off the Cuff
October drama…Interest rates and stocks may be uncoupling…Is it too soon to see a bear market?...What could break the back of the Bull?
View from the North Country
Polling The Pro's...Leuthold Group Client Survey Results...We Are Spenders Not Savers...U.S. Savings Rate Still Trending Lower Even In The Face Of Uncertain Economic Times..."Clean Energy" Sector Update
Major Trend Index Remains Bullish
September was a dull narrowly mixed month (best sector +6%, worst sector -6%). But as a whole, the third quarter of 1991 was not bad.
View from the North Country
Playing The Game (Investment Management): Some Insights and Criticisms From Walter Cabot Of Standish Ayer & Wood...Tokyo Stock Market Update...Gasoline Prices Are Historically Cheap When Adjusted For Inflation...Country By Country Union Membership Statistics
August: A Dull Month (Except for Four Days)
If you had been vacationing on an island with no communication during the last two weeks of August, you’d think from the month to month statistics that August 1991 was a big late summer yawn.
August Insights
Secondary stocks’ August performance, growth vs. cyclical and growth vs. value performance, S&P and DIJA historical valuations and the Royal Blue Index.
Making Up For June in July
In July, the stock and bond markets pretty much moved in lock step and recovered what June gave away. Secondary stocks did not as a class fare quite so well.
Worth Noting
Tony Tabell (Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc.) often has interesting statistical studies in his weekly market letter. By Tony’s calculations, August historically has been the second best month of the year for the stock market.
View from the North Country
Natural Gas…now may be the time to start taking a contrary approach. Also, improving the delivery of government services as an alternative to increasing taxes (Arthur Laffer idea).
Subscribe to Advisor Newsletter