Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
View from the North Country
The Ross Perot Factor...A New Hero Streaks Across The Political Heavens... Let’s Screw the Kids (Government Generosity for the Elderly)...U. S. Cheap Labor?
When Do We Get the “Big One”?
A client asked if I thought the market might be about ready for another one of those super bear markets. Well, predicting bear markets is somewhat akin to predicting earthquakes. And, like the “big one” in California, we are very sure it will happen sometime, but nobody really knows when.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
With the Major Trend Index still negative, we remain cowards as far as the U.S. equity market is concerned. It probably takes a brave (or foolish) investor to aggressively buy stocks at current valuation levels with the economic expansion now in doubt.
Does It Make Sense to Defense?
I know it may be difficult for readers to envision much of a market decline in the current environment. However, keep in mind that all bear markets are not “cyclical”. That is, some past bear markets were not related to the business cycle.
A Long Term Message Courtesy of Ned Davis
Ned Davis gave me this chart at the May Market Technicians Conclave in Naples Florida. It is a great chart, clearly making the point that today's stock market is overextended in terms of its historical performance history, not just in terms of valuation history.
View from the North Country
The Ross Perot Factor... Coming Off the Drug Related Highs (The Drug Stocks)...Is The U.S. The Land of Cheap Labor and Long Hours?
Coming: The Golden Years for Stock Market Timing
On the evening of May 14th, Steve Leuthold was the keynote speaker at the 17th annual Market Technicians Association Seminar in Naples, Florida. What follows is a slightly edited version of his speech and the charts and tables used in a workshop on the following day.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
The Major Trend Index reading continued to deteriorate in May. Following the dictates of our disciplined weight of the evidence approach, we remain very cautious toward the U.S. equity market.
Answering Your Questions?
A few weeks ago, Alan Abelson, editor of Barron’s, interviewed Steve Leuthold concerning our now cautious attitude towards the U.S. stock market. Alan Abelson asked many of the questions you may have.
Major Trend Index Shifts to “Negative” In April
On Monday April 6th, The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index downshifted from “neutral” status to “negative” status. The prudent course is a move to the sidelines, becoming a spectator for a while.
Did Your Stocks Make Money In April?
A glance at the popular market averages made April look like a pretty good month in the stock market. But if your equity performance in April matched those numbers, you must have had a well-oiled portfolio of deep cyclicals.
View from the North Country
Please “bear” with us….Polling the Pros in April…Catch a Falling Knife (Investing in Japan)…Nuclear Power: Cheap & Clean?
View From The North Country
Peter Bernstein recently observed that the bond market is focusing on deeper concerns that relate more to the political environment than the economic environment.
Scanning The Markets: The First Quarter
The table on the next page is a performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by first quarter 1992 performance.
Major Trend Index Slips To Neutral
On Monday March 2nd, our weight of the evidence approach used to assess the longer term status of the stock market, slipped into "neutral" territory.
Playing The Bounce Update...Selling Some Bounce Stocks
The theory underlying the annual "Playing The Bounce" exercise is that these stocks, driven down by excessive selling late in the year will rebound when the pressure is off.
View From The North Country
We appreciate your response to our client survey questionnaire. As of February 28th your comments were still coming in.
The Short Term Tea Leaves
"Awful" Knutson, the crusty old Norwegian curmudgeon, and father of "Evel" Knutson refuses to communicate with us.
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