Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Major Trend Index Improved, But Still Negative
The most recent calculation of the Major Trend Index (Nov. 2) shows improvement from a month ago, but remains NEGATIVE on balance. Thus, we continue to advocate a high level of caution toward the U.S. stock market.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
The message remains the same: The U.S. stock market is vulnerable and may be on the verge of playing “catch up” with the declines that have already taken place in foreign markets.
The Boomers Are Starting To Raise Hell
The cold war may be over, but generational warfare is looming on the horizon. This month, I have asked David Deming, one of the newer and younger Leuthold Group professionals, to present his views on this subject.
View from the North Country
Our Polling the Pros September results show the Pros are pretty bearish. Politics 1992: Ross Perot is back in the race...will he regain lost support?
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
The market averages have not gone down much since this work shifted to negative status, but a lot of stocks have.
View from the North Country
Has The Political Tide Again Turned?...Are Government Regulation And Spending On The Rise Again?...Are Higher Taxes On The Way?...Maybe Farmers Should Be Buying Toyotas
1992...After Labor Day
Wall Street gets back down to business after Labor Day. No more summer novels, long weekends, gin and tonics or sand in the shoes. It's a new investment season. Here is our assessment of what might be in store for the market.
Is It “Too Soon” For Another Recession?
I still hear commentators discussing the possibility of “another leg down” for the 1990 recession. In terms of past economic cycle analysis, this is impossible.
View from the North Country
Politics and the Stock Market...Fiscal Reform the Hard Way...What's Up With Gold (Not Much except a Weak Dollar)...Eskom (South Africa's Electric Utility) Bonds: A 20% Yield with Some Risk As Well
Generational Inequity…Continued
The July 20th issue of Pensions & Investments included an editorial prompted by my comments regarding generational inequities (July Perception for the Professional). P&I editor Mike Clowes writes that he has decided not to join AARP. I was not even aware that my friend Mike was old enough to join.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
Our Major Trend Index inched up in late July, but remained decidedly in negative territory. Following the dictates of our disciplined weight of the evidence approach, we remain very cautious toward the U.S. equity market.
Beware Conventional Wisdom Regarding the Conventions
The perception nearing November could well shift to a view that the differences in the two parties approach to the world will have an impact on interest rates.
And Then There Was Europe
Our overall “Developing Europe” concept was down about 5.9% in July. Most European markets fell under pressure following Bundesbank action.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
With the Major Trend Index still negative, we remain cowards as far as the U.S. equity market is concerned. It probably takes a brave (or foolish) investor to aggressively buy stocks at current valuation levels with the economic expansion now in doubt.
The Current Environment
Today the unexpectedly bad unemployment numbers were released. The Fed immediately announced an almost panicky half point cut in the discount rate. The economic recovery may not be for real.
Polling the Pros: The Boston Bruins
In June, polls were taken among our Boston clients. The results were about the most bearish we have seen since these polls were initiated back in early 1991.
View from the North Country
The Ross Perot Factor...A New Hero Streaks Across The Political Heavens... Let’s Screw the Kids (Government Generosity for the Elderly)...U. S. Cheap Labor?
When Do We Get the “Big One”?
A client asked if I thought the market might be about ready for another one of those super bear markets. Well, predicting bear markets is somewhat akin to predicting earthquakes. And, like the “big one” in California, we are very sure it will happen sometime, but nobody really knows when.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
The Major Trend Index reading continued to deteriorate in May. Following the dictates of our disciplined weight of the evidence approach, we remain very cautious toward the U.S. equity market.
Does It Make Sense to Defense?
I know it may be difficult for readers to envision much of a market decline in the current environment. However, keep in mind that all bear markets are not “cyclical”. That is, some past bear markets were not related to the business cycle.
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