Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Growth Vs. Value—Transition to Growth Leadership?
It appears that a transition to growth leadership is already underway in the small caps segment of the market.
September Mutual Fund Flows
September’s outflow a record dollar-wise, but only represents 0.7% of total equity fund assets. This is not indicative of a panic by Main Street investors.
Insider Block Measures...Selling Volume Declines Some, But Remains Heavy
Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in the three months since, heavy selling has resumed.
View From The North Country
Art Cashin’s Intuitive Observations regarding the altered ambiance in New York. September 19th Conference Call with Steve Leuthold and Charley Maxwell summarized.
Convertible Offerings….How They Affect The Stock Market Supply/Demand Equation
In the context of Supply/Demand considerations, convertible offerings represent a potential increase for equity supply down the road.
Post Attack
Unlike most past market crises, a post-crisis rally did not immediately follow the September 11th Attack. October Expectations: The passage of time is beginning to moderate Wall Street’s debilitating pain. I think the stock market rebound rally could be about to get underway in earnest.
Volatility Update
Market uncertainty often leads to volatile markets. The terrorist attacks on September 11th left a great deal of uncertainty and this was reflected by extremely high levels of volatility in September.
Insider Block Measures...Heavy Selling Volume Still Sending “Bearish” Message
Early in June, it appeared that big block selling was on the decline. But in July and August, selling has resumed at a furious pace.
View From The North Country
Charley Maxwell’s “Nearing The Top Of The Hubbert Curve” from August is must reading. Decimal Trading in sub-pennies? Read what Barry Small, Weeden’s CEO, has to say about this. Also, what’s so bad about the lottery?
Volatility Update
A decrease in occurrences of 2% days for the S&P 500 this year. Of the 169 trading days so far this year, only 17 have been moves in excess of 2% (10% of the time). There were no 2% moves in August.
Post Labor Day…..A New Market Season
What I Worry About...The possibility of this being a secular, not a cyclical bear market. Four decades in the investment business have taught me to respect the message of the market itself.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate the Leuthold Index methodology.
Earnings Contradictions
Earnings seem to be dependent on who the source is. S&P has taken a tougher line, excluding expenses that it considers part of “normal” operations.
For The Technicians
Examining some of the impacts that decimalization and the inclusion of financial derivatives may have on the NYSE Advance/Decline Line & ARMs Index.
August Mutual Fund Flows
YTD, $55 billion net inflow now running 73% behind last year’s $201 billion for the same period.
Internet Debacle (Opportunity?) Index
Several clients called, expressing an interest in our recently constructed “Internet Survivors?” theme. This is now being presented monthly in Leuthold’s Groups ~ Equity Strategies (the “Blue Book”).
Convertible Offerings….How They Affect The Stock Market Supply/Demand Equation
A comparison of stock market net new equity supply with and without Convertibles.
Insider Block Measures
Selling volume steps up in July.
View From The North Country
Full Disclosure (Reg FD), Investment Banking conflicts (hardly a recent development) and the Nikkei and DJIA: Will they cross this year?
Volatility Update
The NASDAQ volatility continues to slow but the S&P 500 was surprisingly volatile in July.
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