Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Insider Block Measures
Remains in normal historical range.
NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio: A Useful Tool
The NASDAQ short interest ratio decreased in January.
2001 Mutual Fund Flow Recap
January 2002 fund flows and a review of the cash flow trends, comparing 2001 levels to previous years.
Market Timing With The Index Of Leading Economic Indicators
Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a good coincident indicator for the stock market. Looks like it’s on the mend.
Tech Watch
S&P Tech up slightly in January, but median PE ratio rises for 5th straight month as poor earnings are reported.
Volatility Update
While the markets are still very volatile, the vast majority of our volatility charts show 2001 levels down somewhat from 2000.
View From The North Country
DALBAR study shows average investor missed out on 17-year bull market performance of 1984-2000.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
A Disappointing Start
The “seasonals” were with us, but have yet to produce positive results. “V” shaped economic recovery conviction stronger than a month ago.
Insider Block Measures....Remains In Normal Historical Range
Remains within the “normal” historical range for net selling.
Bounce Update: No Bounce In January
We decided to Play The Bounce late in December. Window dressing and some tax loss selling had continued, creating a second bounce opportunity (at least we thought so).
Leuthold Group Playing The Bounce This Year
Tactical move that has worked moderately well so far.
Capitalization Tier Meausres
Continuing to evaluate Leuthold Index methodology.
Large Cap Versus Small Cap: S&P 500 Versus Russell 2000
For the third straight year, the Russell outperforms.
Insider Block Measures & NASDAQ Short Interest Ratio
Insider block measures now moving down toward bullish territory…..but not there yet.
December Mutual Fund Flows
There has now been net inflow in each of the last three months, but this doesn't mean that investor confidence has recovered.
Focus On Equity Supply
This year’s equity offerings volume, as measured by common shares in IPO and secondary financings, finished the year well below the levels of 2000.
View From The North Country
Leuthold’s New Year Predictions for 2002 and a review of last year’s predictions.
Normalizing Earnings Is Now Essential
Earnings are cyclical and the economic cycle causes distortions. A focus on which earnings to use and how to evaluate the differences.
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