Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
The VLT Momentum Indicators…..New Buy Signals On S&P 500 & DJIA
VLT Momentum, a long term technical measure, recorded buy signals on S&P 500 and DJIA. This is a very reliable indicator.
Insider Block Measures....Bullish
You may notice we have raised the buy and sell zone going back to 1997. The reason for this adjustment becomes pretty clear when you look at how the dollar volume of big block net selling has been trending upward since 1997.
Short Interest...Short Interest Still High Despite October Performance
Short interest was actually up 1.1%, but a 16% surge in average daily volume accounted for the short interest ratio decline.
P/E Peaks and Troughs…..Since World War II
It’s possible that valuations could ultimately fall to their “ultra cheap” levels, with P/E ratios around 10x earnings. However, it is more typical for bear markets to bottom around the median P/E levels of 16.0x.
Playing The Bounce Update
The Leuthold Group is not currently “Playing The Bounce,” but may do so in December, depending on market conditions.
View From The North Country
Just buy and hold good blue chip stocks? …..No growth is permanent.
October Mutual Fund Flows
October’s weekly fund flow was interesting to watch because it really confirmed that Main Street’s investing patterns in past bear markets could be repeating in the latest cycle, at least so far.
A New Cyclical Bull Market
Continued positive economic data. Q3 GDP up 3.1%. Initial unemployment claims trending down. Capex is rising. Group leadership in early stages of recovery: big initial Tech and Telecom bounce from the October 9th low, but will it be sustained?
Volatility Update…..Both S&P 500 And NASDAQ Very Volatile
October's reading the most volatile in the S&P 500 since 1938 and fifth highest over the entire history of this work.
Eye On The Consumer
Important pillars of economic bridge until Capex kicks in and business confidence improves. Interest only mortgages-the ticking time bomb debt. U.S. Consumer debt OK compared with other countries but, what happens when interest rates rise?
Insider Block Measures....Selling Pressure From Insiders Continues To Wane
Latest 10-week reading of 0.29% remains in the normal range of net selling territory.
S&P's "Core" Earnings Methodology Losing Support?
We applauded S&P for developing a standardized approach which adjusts GAAP earnings for several problem accounting areas and produces a better representation of “True” earnings.
Insider Block Measures....Less Selling By Insiders In August/September
The most recent sell signal (registered June 26th) proved to be very timely in retrospect, with the S&P 500 falling a big 14% in the four weeks that followed.
Short Interest...Both Ratios In Bullish Territory
This month’s NASDAQ ratio remains in bullish territory after last month’s buy signal.
View From The North Country
“Managing Your Mother Lode”—Ten Commandments: outline of Steve’s speech for the Jim Fraser’s Contrary Opinion Forum.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Remains Very High In September
The S&P 500's September reading is the most volatile since 1938 and fifth highest over the entire history of this work.
Case For A Bear Market Bottom
I now think the stock market will record its secular bear market lows between now and Thanksgiving. It’s time right now to start an equity accumulation program.
When The Bombs Fly Is It Time To Buy?
A look at previous military conflicts and stock market reaction.
September Mutual Fund Flows
U.S. focus equity fund net outflow of $17 billion is estimated for September.
Eerie Parallels To 1962’s Stock Market
Markets appear remarkably similar on several levels: Both markets struggling to recover in wake of recession economy. Cuban Missile Crisis left Americans wondering if war was imminent, as Iraq debate continues to heat up today.
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