Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Insider Block Measures....Encouraged By New Confirming Bullish Signal
The decline in insider selling this year is a very encouraging sign for the stock market.
Better Top Line Growth Points Toward Improved Bottom Line
Earnings momentum may appear to be slowing, but it is last year’s comparisons that were overstating the results.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both the NASDAQ and NYSE short interest ratios increased in April.
The Rationale For Adding REITs To Core Portfolio
Adding new 5.0% REIT holding in Core Portfolio. Viewing it as an alternative to the low fixed income yields.
View From The North Country
Deficit Track” March data encouraging, but…...considering the tax cuts already on the books, combined with a bulge in spending, a fiscal 2003 deficit of $400 billion is in prospect.
Alert: Changes To The Global Industry Classification System
Each year, S&P and MSCI hold an annual review to make revisions that they believe will better enable their GIC System to most accurately reflect the sectors and industries most relevant to the equity investment community. Beginning on May 1st, a number of changes took place as a result of their annual review.
Can Bond Market Returns Match Future Stock Returns?
It will be tough for bonds to keep up with stocks over the next several years even though stock and bond returns are neck and neck over the past twenty years.
April Mutual Fund Flows...Equity Fund Flows Rebound
April’s net inflow total certainly benefited from improved market action, as well as 11th hour IRA contributions ahead of the April 15th deadline.
And Now...Back To The Fundamentals
No doubt, “relief” was the primary component in April’s performance formula. Wall Street can now redirect the focus back to issues of domestic consequence….things like earnings, valuations, and economic growth.
Declining Defined Contribution Participation
A recently released survey of over 500 large and mid size employers found that the employee participation rate in 401(k) plans dropped to a level not seen since the early 1990s.
Volatility Update…..S&P Volatility Still High, But Coming Down
In Q1, the instances of High Volatility in the S&P 500 was at the fifth highest level dating back to 1900.
Insider Block Measures....Back Into “Normal” Net Selling Territory From Bullish Zone
The latest 10-week reading of 0.27% has risen back into the normal zone after spending six weeks in bullish territory.
View From The North Country
“View From The North Country” this month highlights several prior periods of “scary” market environments. In retrospect, all provided excellent buying opportunities.
Answering Client Questions
Each month, we get a number of client questions via meetings, phone calls, and e-mails regarding various aspects of our research.
Short Term Group Leaders & Laggers
On March 11th, the stock market made a new low for the year. But in anticipation of a final resolution with Saddam Hussein, the market bounced off those lows and closed higher for eight trading days in a row.
NASDAQ & NYSE Short Interest
Both ratios still bullish.
March Mutual Fund Flows...Fleeing Stocks, Chasing Bonds
Past history shows the market can recover in spite of an absence of Main Street support.
The Big Swings In S&P 500 Sector Weights
History shows us a number of economic sectors besides technology which have also experienced broad swings as the tide of investor enthusiasm ebbs and flows.
View From The North Country
Consumer confidence now dismal. Historical analysis however indicates that good buying opportunities are typically found during periods of extreme pessimism. Currently view Conference Board measure as a stock market positive!
Insider Block Measures....New Big Buy Signal Registered In February!
The latest reading is well into bullish territory and is the most positive reading on this indicator since the first quarter of 1995.
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