Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
View From The North Country
I cannot recall another time when professional stock market opinion was so universally bullish regarding the coming year.
Tracking The Market Recovery
Based on the long term averages, there is additional upside to the bull market in 2004, if the S&P 500 tracks the “classic” recovery pattern.
Playing The Bounce Update: Small Bounce In November
There seems to be some decent performance coming from the large cap bounce stocks.
Client Questions And Answers
A look at why our very overweight Healthcare position and zero weight in Financials has not hurt our performance this year.
Price To Sales Ratios....Are Small Caps Still Significantly Cheaper?
On a price to sales basis, small caps sold at 43% discount to large caps at the end of 1999, but this has virtually disappeared in the past four years of strong small cap performance.
November Mutual Fund Flows...What Fund Scandals?
Public does not yet seem to phased by the mutual fund scandals as November marked the ninth consecutive month of net inflow to U.S. focus mutual funds, totaling $133 billion of net inflow.
View From The North Country
What’s in store for 2004? See “View From The North Country” for Steve Leuthold’s predictions. Targeting mid year stock market peak of 1250 for S&P 500 and 2400 for NASDAQ. Also makes prognostications on Interest Rates, Inflation, the Dollar, Fed Budget Deficit, and more.
This Isn't Good...
A recent study conducted by Hewitt & Associates found that 42% of 401(k) plan participants cashed out rather than roll their assets into an IRA or into their new employers’ defined contribution plans.
November Leadership
November correction we anticipated never materialized. December could be frosting on the cake as the last month of a very good stock market year.
OTC Bulletin Board Update: Speculation Still Reigns Supreme
September’s sharp spike in OTC Bulletin Board trading volume persisted in October.
Speculation Is Back On The Bulletin Board
In mid-October, it was announced that OTC Bulletin Board trading volume surged sharply in September...very sharply.
October Mutual Fund Flows...$116 Billion Net Inflow Over Last Eight Months
What is driving hefty net redemptions in retail money market funds? You might be surprised.
View From The North Country
Leuthold’s thoughts about a potential near-term bull market correction, the current budget deficit, and observations on the political front.
Convertible Offerings...The Stealth Supply Factor
With convertible issuance in 2003 running almost 23% ahead of common equity issuance, we thought it would be a good time to take a look at this subject.
Surviving Octophobia
No! We are not bearish on the market, but think a relatively minor correction (6%-8%?) could develop before year end. Market has moved up quickly, especially in October. So a pull-back is certainly plausible.
Capex And Consumer Spending Back In Sync
Another confirmation of the strength of the recovery.
A Closer Look At Small Caps Versus Large Caps
Weight of evidence no longer overwhelmingly favors Small Cap leadership, but we believe they still have upside potential.
Into The Home Stretch…..2003
Octophobia 2003…..The stock market has nothing to fear but fear itself. The financial system is awash in liquidity, the economy stronger than anticipated and investor confidence is returning.
Client Questions
Answering client questions on the economic recovery, bull market upside, valuations, Main Street and what could go wrong?
Don't Count Out The Consumer
Consumer should not be underestimated. Combined mortgage debt and household debt only 14%, just barely above the 1980-to-date median.
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