Latest Research

In early 1991, a continuing survey of client stock market attitudes was initiated (39 polls have been taken to date).

Last issue, this publication presented a study of historical stock market volatility based on the annual swings in the S&P 500 and the DJIA (low close to high close).

It's a tradition. Each January we publish the gold book (Perception II) before this green book. So don't blame the post office.

Much of the January Green Book is devoted to tradition, so too is this section.

The fixed income markets ended the year on a strong note.

Self examination can be good for the soul, so each January time is taken to look back over the preceding year, critically reviewing the significant studies, portfolio shifts and recommendations appearing appearing in our publication.

On December 21, the Major Trend Index moved into "neutral" territory.

An old stock market adage is that bull markets climb a "wall of worry".

For over a decade. The Leuthold Group has been sending its "Bounce List" containing stocks that appear to be subject to unusually heavy selling pressures late in the year.

The most recent calculation of the Major Trend Index (Nov. 30) continues to raise the danger/caution flag for the U.S. equity market. The U.S. stock market still appears vulnerable to the extent of a 25%-30% decline in the popular averages.

We like markets that move. Preferably markets that move up, but markets that move down are not bad either. They can provide great buying opportunities. Frankly, I have become increasingly bored and frustrated with the 1992 stock market.

A performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by three month performance.

Our updated list of potential trading stocks to buy now and sell in January (or later) for your clients or for your own account. The list is still long, even after eliminating the stocks that have already had a sharp move up from their respective 1992 lows.

During November, a California client brought up an interesting point relating to P/E valuations and to our historical studies of stock market P/E ratios. “How would today's typical P/E compare with the typical P/E of the past?”

Polling the Pros on the West Coast…Lottery or Lootery?...Time for “Lean and Mean” In the “Not For Profit” Sector

All things considered, I think November's long bond market performed surprisingly well.

The most recent calculation of the Major Trend Index (Nov. 2) shows improvement from a month ago, but remains NEGATIVE on balance. Thus, we continue to advocate a high level of caution toward the U.S. stock market.

Since the Milwaukee poll taken in early October, it appears that optimism has continued to build. This opinion is supported by the kinds of questions we are now fielding from clients.

A performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by October performance.