Latest Research

The message remains the same: The U.S. stock market is vulnerable and may be on the verge of playing “catch up” with the declines that have already taken place in foreign markets.

A performance rundowns for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures), ranked by third quarter performance.

Our Polling the Pros September results show the Pros are pretty bearish. Politics 1992: Ross Perot is back in the race...will he regain lost support?

The bond market is looking increasingly vulnerable. The economy appears to be deteriorating, inflation is nowhere in sight and short rates are declining. With all this going for it, why is the bond market stagnating?

The cold war may be over, but generational warfare is looming on the horizon. This month, I have asked David Deming, one of the newer and younger Leuthold Group professionals, to present his views on this subject.

An abbreviated 1992 edition of The Leuthold Group’s study of “Political Fiscal Responsibility”, focusing on what appear to be Congress' best and worst.

The market averages have not gone down much since this work shifted to negative status, but a lot of stocks have.

Wall Street gets back down to business after Labor Day. No more summer novels, long weekends, gin and tonics or sand in the shoes. It's a new investment season. Here is our assessment of what might be in store for the market.

I still hear commentators discussing the possibility of “another leg down” for the 1990 recession. In terms of past economic cycle analysis, this is impossible.

A performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by August performance.

We are activating the “Life Insurance” concept in September and plan to have an initial exposure of about 6% of our Model Equity portfolio. The sector has picked up on a relative basis in 1992, aided by declining interest rates, improved cost structures, and some reduction of concerns over real estate exposure.

Has The Political Tide Again Turned?...Are Government Regulation And Spending On The Rise Again?...Are Higher Taxes On The Way?...Maybe Farmers Should Be Buying Toyotas

My current view towards long bonds from an institutional investor's point of view is to sell some now and sell some more when longer term momentum slows.

A pullback to 16000 or thereabouts could trigger some action on our part. One possible strategy we have discussed is an ADR package of major exporters.

The Major Trend Index is really the backbone of our stock market analysis at The Leuthold Group. Prompted by a number of client questions in recent months, Andy Engel has broken apart the Major Trend Index and analyzed each of the five broad categories separately.

Our Major Trend Index inched up in late July, but remained decidedly in negative territory. Following the dictates of our disciplined weight of the evidence approach, we remain very cautious toward the U.S. equity market.

The perception nearing November could well shift to a view that the differences in the two parties approach to the world will have an impact on interest rates.

Our overall “Developing Europe” concept was down about 5.9% in July. Most European markets fell under pressure following Bundesbank action.

A performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by July performance.

Politics and the Stock Market...Fiscal Reform the Hard Way...What's Up With Gold (Not Much except a Weak Dollar)...Eskom (South Africa's Electric Utility) Bonds: A 20% Yield with Some Risk As Well