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The Ross Perot Factor... Coming Off the Drug Related Highs (The Drug Stocks)...Is The U.S. The Land of Cheap Labor and Long Hours?

The bond market, helped out by some good CPI and PPI numbers, scored typical net gains of 2+ points in May. Long bond yields, corporates, treasury zeros and treasury coupon bond yields fell 20 basis points....all in all, a pretty good month.

On the evening of May 14th, Steve Leuthold was the keynote speaker at the 17th annual Market Technicians Association Seminar in Naples, Florida. What follows is a slightly edited version of his speech and the charts and tables used in a workshop on the following day.

On Monday April 6th, The Leuthold Group’s Major Trend Index downshifted from “neutral” status to “negative” status. The prudent course is a move to the sidelines, becoming a spectator for a while.

A performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by year to date performance.

A glance at the popular market averages made April look like a pretty good month in the stock market. But if your equity performance in April matched those numbers, you must have had a well-oiled portfolio of deep cyclicals.

During April, the histogram featured in this section was used in presentations to the Cleveland and Denver analyst societies. It appears to have surprised some professionals, especially those who entered the investment profession during the 1980’s.

Please “bear” with us….Polling the Pros in April…Catch a Falling Knife (Investing in Japan)…Nuclear Power: Cheap & Clean?

The bond market continued to edge higher in the first part of April, but then the Chicago River drained the T-bond market of its liquidity, flooding out T-bond and T-note futures trading.

In 1988, Leuthold first presented his partners at Weeden and Company with the idea of a defensive short selling program designed for large pools of capital, employing only highly liquid large cap stocks selected on a highly disciplined quantitative basis.

A few weeks ago, Alan Abelson, editor of Barron’s, interviewed Steve Leuthold concerning our now cautious attitude towards the U.S. stock market. Alan Abelson asked many of the questions you may have.

The table on the next page is a performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by first quarter 1992 performance.

This study focuses on the S&P 500 and its P/E ratio.

Peter Bernstein recently observed that the bond market is focusing on deeper concerns that relate more to the political environment than the economic environment.

The bond market sagged in the first half of March as the economic outlook improved, deficit dears increased and the crowd of early 1992 bond market bulls pulled in their horns.

On Monday March 2nd, our weight of the evidence approach used to assess the longer term status of the stock market, slipped into "neutral" territory.

The table on the next page is a performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by February 1992 performance.