Latest Research

Secondary stocks’ August performance, growth vs. cyclical and growth vs. value performance, S&P and DIJA historical valuations and the Royal Blue Index.

A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by August 1991 performance.

An update of The Leuthold Group’s Intrinsic Value Benchmarks provides a way of estimating upside and downside potential for the DJIA and S&P 500. How much higher might the stock market go in the next year…..and what is the bear market downside risk?

A number of modifications were made in the screening process as we attempted to exclude stocks with fading earnings momentum. It appears our modifications have been effective.

Playing The Game (Investment Management): Some Insights and Criticisms From Walter Cabot Of Standish Ayer & Wood...Tokyo Stock Market Update...Gasoline Prices Are Historically Cheap When Adjusted For Inflation...Country By Country Union Membership Statistics

August was a good month for bonds. Long treasuries recorded net gains of three points or more, with yields falling 30 basis points. T-bonds are now back up to where we sold them in January and February 1991.

In July, the stock and bond markets pretty much moved in lock step and recovered what June gave away. Secondary stocks did not as a class fare quite so well.

Tony Tabell (Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc.) often has interesting statistical studies in his weekly market letter. By Tony’s calculations, August historically has been the second best month of the year for the stock market.

This month we added three new stocks from Jim Floyd’s “Undervalued & Unloved” screening work, boosting our current commitment to value stocks to 16% of portfolio assets. We now believe Value's downtrend has reversed and this view seems to be confirmed by the relative strength line.

A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by July 1991 performance.

Natural Gas…now may be the time to start taking a contrary approach. Also, improving the delivery of government services as an alternative to increasing taxes (Arthur Laffer idea).

Has 1991 been an unusually high volatility year? Thanks to statistics compiled by Tony Tabell (Delafield, Harvey, Tabell Inc.), we are able to make volatility comparisons back to 1897.

In July, the bond market gained back about what it had lost in June. After a quick sell off following Independence Day, prices moved erratically higher for the remainder of the month.

From time to time, there are client inquiries concerning the foundations of The Leuthold Group’s fundamental intrinsic value judgements, relating to the S&P 500, 400 and the Dow Jones Industrials. Here is a current data summary regarding these three stock market indices.

Are Value Managers an Endangered Species? Some observations and analysis. Also, a critical look at the S&P Mid Cap Index and have you ever been in Voice Mail Jail?

The first half of June was almost all downhill for the bond market. The remainder of the month was spent moving sideways, with a blast upward on the last day of the month. It was a mini flee to quality.

The second quarter of 1991 is history. While the market averages ended the second quarter about where they began, our Major Trend Index has lost quite a bit of ground in the last three months.

Has the June stock market decline set the stage for a good second half for stocks?

At this point, our work does not yet confirm a longer term shift in market leadership from growth to cyclical. Perhaps such a confirmation will take place in coming months (we suspect it will).

These days everyone seems to be focusing on the bulging supply of new equity, the IPO buildup, new equity financing by existing companies, secondary offerings, etc. How much is too much? When will the new supply burden break the back of the bull market?