Latest Research

Surprised that crude oil did not soar above $70. Price of crude seems to have double topped at $70 and some correction is expected in coming months.

In reviewing the numerous Supply/Demand factors we track, there were four trends that are perhaps the most important and/or most interesting on this front so far in 2005.

A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).

The top ten groups, from our 150+ group history, in each of the last six years during the fourth quarter (October to December performance). 

Buy early and avoid the December rush. 2005 stock market could be shaping up as a good year for buying the big losers, as the institutional tax selling deadline approaches (October 31st).

The YTD performance of the Industrial Metals equity group is particularly impressive when you consider that the group was down 13.7% through mid-May.

Still bearish on the bond market. CPI inflation could continue to surprise on the upside; the economy never did hit a soft patch; and Fed may still make several more rate hikes.

Taking off with a flight on the Airlines. Added this contrarian play as a 5% portfolio holding. Group Selection Scores moved this group to Attractive in September, and most Airlines have made real progress reducing operating costs.

In comparison to crude oil, industrial metals are beginning to look like a real bargain.

In my opinion, the U.S. stock market is entering the terminal phase of the current cyclical bull market, based on our historical studies of typical cyclical bull market duration and magnitude. To a lesser degree the same can be said for the economic expansion.

Strong July stock market could  continue into the dog days of August.

Consumer spending may have finally peaked in this cycle, but a consumer collapse is far from imminent. Consumers can be expected to remain supportive of economic growth.

Real growth in capital spending remained at an above-median rate in Q2, and it now looks like it might hold at or near these levels if an inventory rebuilding scenario plays out during the rest of the year.

Sustainable Tech rally or nothing more than playing catch-up?

Despite evidence to the contrary, many continue to think that investment in exchange traded funds is commanding the lion’s share of new money flow going into all equity funds.

A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).

Metal equities broke out above their trendline near the end of May, and have continued to rally since.

Still bearish on the bond market. From today’s low interest rate levels, there is not much upside, but downside is significant!

On an aggregate basis, we see little room for further margin improvement, but there are select areas we believe may yet be poised for additional (slight/moderate) expansion.

A recap of the year so far, and our outlook for the second half of 2005.