Latest Research

Good but not a great “Bounce”, so far.

2005's YTD tally is the second lowest going back 14 years, and demonstrates fund investors’ consistent aversion to U.S. focused stock funds throughout the year.

Introducing the newest member of the Leuthold Research Team, Doug Ramsey. Also, a discussion on what could push the Major Trend Index back to positive territory and

Group has rated Attractive for the past two months, after bouncing between Neutral and Attractive throughout 2005.

Back at the end of October, virtually all of the primary stock market indexes were slightly underwater on a YTD basis, but November’s market action changed all that with an impressive rally.

Within the current cycle, the stock market recovery is mature, but based on the average post WWII recovery could still have some upside (S&P 500 to 1400?). Currently, earnings growth is well beyond historical averages, but the economic expansion is below the norm.

The market rally in November, which carried many indexes to new highs, was not as broad-based as we like to see, but Breadth did improve some later in the month.

Debunking one myth of buy and hold rationale. Showing how stock market returns change if investors avoid the best and worst performing stock market days. Essentially, anything can be proven with statistics.

A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).

The strong November results (across all three market caps) has now propelled the 2005 “Bounce” strategy to superior performance.

While November’s net inflow of $3 billion into traditional open-end equity funds is a break from this recent outflow trend, it’s still a stretch to say that Main Street investors are embracing stocks once again.

Industrial Metal equities far outpaced both the S&P 500 (up 3.5%) and our Leuthold Materials Sector Index (up 7.0%).

Still view long rates as potentially vulnerable to strong economy and unexpected inflation.

“Video Gaming Technology” and “Affluent Consumer”; along with a new Jim Floyd quantitative screen: “Deep Value.”

The perils of speculation in Housing…..lessons people are now learning. Also, client questions....and Leuthold's answers.

With most indexes declining during October, it was not a bad month to have a portion of the asset allocation portfolio hedged.

Proceeds from group reductions were used to establish a new position in Application Software, which is currently one of four Attractively rated Tech groups.

Reducing exposure to Independent Power Producers in the all equity Select Industries Portfolio. GS Scores still rank group Attractive, but we are concerned about the “spark spread”.

For clients unable to shift to equity alternatives or increase cash holdings, this month’s “Inside The Stock Market” section provides an update of our Defensive Stock group study in order to identify some potential hiding places.

A comparison of the performance of the current stock market recovery to the monthly performance averages of past recoveries (1900 to date).