Latest Research

Net equity exposure in the Core and Global Portfolios trimmed to 55%. Chances are good that any near-term market set-back will be measured in weeks (not months), and contained within the parameters of either a shallow (under 7%) or intermediate (7-12%) correction.

We examine several models or screens to detect accounting or governance risks.

Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology produce six of the top ten groups.

We slashed the Core Fund’s Emerging Market equity position in 2011, a decision that paid off handsomely until very recently. Is it time to rebuild EM exposure?

We’d rather eat broken glass than have to forecast financial market correlations, but that doesn’t mean we ignore them altogether.

We examine the highly ranked Automotive Retail group and explain why, despite its recent strength, it may still have room to run.

We try to avoid the popular practice of “cherry picking” a few indicators to fit our stock market forecast, a reason we evaluate more than 130 measures in calculating the Major Trend Index. But last month we couldn’t resist highlighting the exciting face-off between the professionals and the public.

Three months ago, our “Of Special Interest” section reviewed the historically pronounced effect of the well-known “Sell In May” phenomenon during mid-term years of the presidential election cycle.

The United States’ large P/E premium relative to the rest of the world suggests that foreign equities should produce total returns of about two percentage points (annualized) above the U.S. over a seven to ten-year horizon.

July’s Russell 2000 -6% rout finally deflated some of the Small Cap valuation premium we’ve been grousing about in recent years.

Beverages is one of a handful of “defensive” groups which has staged a comeback in our ratings during the last few months. 

Remember that peaks in market breadth tend to lead peaks in the S&P 500 by at least a few months.

We’ve lived through many other low-volatility market rallies, but until the last couple of months we hadn’t experienced one in which clients, colleagues, and commentators were complaining so loudly of boredom.

Among EM countries, the Indian equity market has been one of the most difficult corners for international investors to gain access. We look at the market characteristics and investment channel options to consider how to best gain exposure to Indian companies.

Cheapest three sectors on a relative basis: Info Tech, Health Care, Energy

Up/Down Earnings: Q2 Starts Off With A Bang

Small Cap Premium Slumps To 17%

Small Cap stocks significantly underperformed Large Cap stocks since late March.