Latest Research

We’ve been negative on commodities and most commodity-oriented equities for the last three years, believing that the magnitude of the ramp-up in commodity production capacity over the last decade remains generally underappreciated by investors.

We’re still bullish, but nonetheless feel a duty to take issue with some of the popular story-lines that have attended the past two years’ rising prices.

The level of this index is in an extreme zone where false alarms are more likely as small movements in the index can trigger new signals.

Two short-term, options-based sentiment measures have just swung to levels consistent with near-term difficulty for stocks. Current reading is the most bearish combination of smart-money caution and dumb-money confidence in 10 years.

The breadth of new market highs across multiple market indexes illustrates beyond a doubt that the stock market is “externally” in gear, but some analysts contend the market is showing “internal” signs of weakness.

Our Bull Market Confirmation Indicator is tallying a healthy reading. This is intermediate-term bullish, and suggests that a final bull market top should be a minimum of four to six months away.

The fundamental backdrop remains favorable for high grade credits.

Current conditions remain cyclically bullish for equities, however, the mathematics don’t support the  “secular” bull market thesis, or those betting that stocks can be propped up by the economic expansion.

It’s often said the best bull markets surprise even the bulls, and the current one has certainly done that.

Unfortunately, the upswing since early 2009 can be considered immature only from the perspective of its age. The math just doesn’t support the secular case.

Easy earnings growth days are behind us.

Small cap premium spikes back up.

Value strong again in Q2.

S&P 500: Equal Weighted better in june.

Info Tech is largest sector weight in domestic AdvantHedge; Consumer Discretionary is heaviest sector weight in Global AdvantHedge.

Select Industries new purchases: Integrated Oil, Semiconductors, Water Utilities; Global Industries added to Energy, Technology, and Financials.

Both Portfolios lagged all-equity benchmarks in June; but still ahead YTD.

The Major Trend Index rises 0.02 to 1.13 for the week ending June 27, 2014.

Within two broad categories – domestic equity funds and bond funds - mutual funds versus ETFs continue to display opposite flow trends.

The Major Trend Index registered a third consecutive small loss in the week ended June 20th, falling 0.02 to 1.11.