Latest Research

U.S. Quality Corporate Bonds & Munis Rated Favorable; High Yield Bonds Upgraded To Neutral

Up/Down Earnings ratio cools off in August.

Small Caps are selling at a 19% valuation premium relative to Large Caps.

Large Cap Growth has had an impressive advantage over Large Cap Value in six of the past seven years but that trend is reversing in 2014.

The Equal Weighted S&P 500 edged out the Cap Weighted index by 20 bps in August and  expanded its lead to almost 1% YTD (price change only).

Info Tech is largest sector weight in domestic AdvantHedge; Consumer Discretionary is heaviest weight in Global AdvantHedge.

Select Industries bought Department Stores & Health Care Facilities; Global Industries Purchased Gas Utilities & Integrated Oil & Gas.

Net equity target is 55%; waiting for clearer signal from our Major Trend Index (currently rated Neutral).

The S&P 500 gained 3.8% (price only) in August.

The Major Trend Index rose 0.03 to 1.02 for the week ending August 29th, with a solid gain in the technical category proving insufficient to lift the MTI out of its neutral zone. We remain near-term cautious on the stock market and continue to maintain reduced net equity exposure levels of 55% in both the Core and Global Funds.

Net cash continues to flow out of U.S. focus equity mutual funds while inflows to foreign focus equity mutual funds remain steady.

The Major Trend Index fell 0.04 to 0.99 in the week ended August 22nd, remaining within its neutral zone and supporting our recently reduced net equity exposure level of 55% in the Core and Global Funds.

Data revisions to last week’s data reveal positive net cash flows for domestic equity mutual funds for the first time since April.

 The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to 1.03 in the week ended August 15th, the third consecutive reading within its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone. Both the Core and Global Funds remain positioned with reduced net equity exposure of 55% pending a decisive move in our work.

Domestic equity mutual fund flows remain negative but have decelerated for two consecutive weeks.  Bond mutual fund net cash inflows have also resumed after a large net outflow was recorded two weeks prior.

The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 to 1.02 in the week ended August 8th, remaining within its neutral zone (0.95 to 1.05) for the second consecutive week. We are maintaining a reduced net equity exposure level of 55% in both the Core and Global Funds while awaiting the next definitive swing in this quantitative work. While the Index did rise 0.02 on the week, recent market action has tipped two major sub-models very close to bearish inflections that would almost certainly drive the MTI into bearish territory.

Domestic equity mutual fund net cash outflows decelerated this week but remained negative. Domestic equity ETF flows were slightly positive after recording a large net cash outflow in the prior week.

Net cash flowed out of bond mutual funds for the first time since February, while falling equity markets coincided with net cash outflows from domestic equity funds

The S&P 500 lost 1.5% (price only) in July.