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The Major Trend Index rose 0.03 to 1.02 for the week ending August 29th, with a solid gain in the technical category proving insufficient to lift the MTI out of its neutral zone. We remain near-term cautious on the stock market and continue to maintain reduced net equity exposure levels of 55% in both the Core and Global Funds.

Net cash continues to flow out of U.S. focus equity mutual funds while inflows to foreign focus equity mutual funds remain steady.

The Major Trend Index fell 0.04 to 0.99 in the week ended August 22nd, remaining within its neutral zone and supporting our recently reduced net equity exposure level of 55% in the Core and Global Funds.

Data revisions to last week’s data reveal positive net cash flows for domestic equity mutual funds for the first time since April.

 The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to 1.03 in the week ended August 15th, the third consecutive reading within its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone. Both the Core and Global Funds remain positioned with reduced net equity exposure of 55% pending a decisive move in our work.

Domestic equity mutual fund flows remain negative but have decelerated for two consecutive weeks.  Bond mutual fund net cash inflows have also resumed after a large net outflow was recorded two weeks prior.

The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 to 1.02 in the week ended August 8th, remaining within its neutral zone (0.95 to 1.05) for the second consecutive week. We are maintaining a reduced net equity exposure level of 55% in both the Core and Global Funds while awaiting the next definitive swing in this quantitative work. While the Index did rise 0.02 on the week, recent market action has tipped two major sub-models very close to bearish inflections that would almost certainly drive the MTI into bearish territory.

Domestic equity mutual fund net cash outflows decelerated this week but remained negative. Domestic equity ETF flows were slightly positive after recording a large net cash outflow in the prior week.

Net cash flowed out of bond mutual funds for the first time since February, while falling equity markets coincided with net cash outflows from domestic equity funds

The S&P 500 lost 1.5% (price only) in July.

Net equity exposure in the Core and Global Portfolios trimmed to 55%. Chances are good that any near-term market set-back will be measured in weeks (not months), and contained within the parameters of either a shallow (under 7%) or intermediate (7-12%) correction.

We examine several models or screens to detect accounting or governance risks.

Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology produce six of the top ten groups.

We slashed the Core Fund’s Emerging Market equity position in 2011, a decision that paid off handsomely until very recently. Is it time to rebuild EM exposure?

We’d rather eat broken glass than have to forecast financial market correlations, but that doesn’t mean we ignore them altogether.

We examine the highly ranked Automotive Retail group and explain why, despite its recent strength, it may still have room to run.

We try to avoid the popular practice of “cherry picking” a few indicators to fit our stock market forecast, a reason we evaluate more than 130 measures in calculating the Major Trend Index. But last month we couldn’t resist highlighting the exciting face-off between the professionals and the public.