Major Trend Index
Long String Of Moderately Bullish Readings Continues
The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 to 1.15 in the week ended January 10th, continuing a long streak of moderately bullish readings. Both the Core and Global Funds remain positioned fairly aggressively with net equity exposure of 64%.
Major Trend Index Bullish At 1.13
The Major Trend Index continues levitating in moderately bullish territory, closing the week of January 3rd at 1.13. This reading was down 0.02 from the 1.15 recorded in the final weekly reading for November. Net equity exposure in both the Core and Global Portfolios remains around 64%.
Major Trend Jumps to 1.14
The Major Trend Index jumped 0.04 to 1.14 in the final weekly calculation for 2013. While we don’t have a high conviction view for 2014, we enter the year with both the Core and Global Funds fairly aggressively postured with net equity exposure at 64%.
Major Trend Rises Slightly, Stays Bullish
The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to 1.10 in the week ended December 20th. This work remains bullish, but by a narrower margin than for most of 2013. We continue maintaining above-average exposure to equities, with the Core Fund now at a net exposure level of 64% and the Global Fund at 65%.
Major Trend Still Bullish But On A Higher Level Of Alert
The Major Trend Index fell 0.03 to 1.09 in the week ended December 13th. The reading remains bullish, but is now just 0.04 above the 0.95-1.05 neutral zone. We continue targeting net equity exposure of 63% in the Core and Global Funds, but we are now on a higher level of alert.
Major Trend Loses Points But We Stay Bullish
The Major Trend Index was down 0.03 to a reading of 1.12 for the week ended December 6th. Both the Core and Global Funds continue targeting net equity exposure of 63%.
MTI Bullish At 1.15
The Major Trend Index saw little net change last month, dropping 0.02 to 1.15 over the four weeks ended November 29th.
Major Trend Slips But Remains Bullish
The Major Trend Index fell 0.03 to 1.12 in the week ended November 22th. While the bullish margin is now narrower, we closed out the 2% short position in Small Caps; this move brings net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds to 63%.
MTI Slips But Remains Bullish
The Major Trend Index dropped 0.03 to 1.14 in the week ended November 8th. The reading remains bullish, and our net equity exposure in both the Core and Global funds remains at the 60% target we’ve maintained since July.
MTI Remains Bullish; Little Changed in October
The Major Trend Index remained within a fairly narrow, bullish band throughout October, and closed the week ended November 1st at 1.17. This is compared with a final September reading of 1.16.
We Remain Bullish As Major Trend Rises To 1.20
The Major Trend Index rose 0.04 to 1.20 in the week ended October 25. We are increasingly wary of U.S. market valuations, but our disciplines tell us to wait until the MTI deteriorates to negative before taking a major defensive stance.
Major Trend Rises To 1.16
The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to 1.16 in the week ended October 18th, with gains in the technical category offseting losses in the four other indicator groupings. In line with this work, we continue to target above-average net equity exposure of 60% in both the Core and Global Funds.
Major Trend Rises To 1.15
The Major Trend Index rose 0.03 to 1.15 in the week ended October 11th, a bullish reading that continues supporting our above-average commitments to the stock market.
Major Trend Stays Positive But Slips Again To 1.12
The Major Trend Index fell to 1.12 in the week ended October 4th, down 0.04 for the week and down 0.09 from two weeks earlier. However, we do not expect to make significant changes to net equity exposure.
Major Trend Ticks Up A Bit In September
The Major Trend Index rose 0.04 to 1.16 during the month of September, remaining in a range we consider moderately bullish.
Major Trend Positive But Slips To 1.16
The Major Trend Index declined 0.05 to 1.16 in the week ended September 27th, but it remains a safe distance above its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone.
Major Trend Index Rises To 1.21
Last week’s surge to new bull market highs had a more muted impact than we expected on the Major Trend Index.
Major Trend Index - September 19, 2013
The Major Trend Index rose a solid 0.08 to 1.20 in the week ending September 13, with three of the five indicator categories recording gains. Stock markets that are “in gear” are generally not at risk of making an imminent cyclical peak.
Major Trend In A “Mildly Bullish” Holding Pattern
The Major Trend Index changed little in the face of August’s market weakness, closing the first week of September at a mildly bullish 1.12. During the month there were no changes to the targeted net equity exposure of 60% in the Core and Global Funds.
Major Trend Index - August 2013
As discussed last month, the Major Trend Index has experienced a bout of volatility in 2013 that is not uncommon for a late-stage cyclical bull market. Since April, the MTI has twice dipped to the Neutral zone, but both moves were ultimately aborted as the stock market moved to new cyclical highs.
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