Major Trend Index

The Major Trend Index was unchanged at 1.10 in the week ended July 18th, hovering just 0.05 above its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone. The combination of inflated investor sentiment and weakening market internals is a negative one for the very near-term, and we cut net equity exposure in tactical funds to 60% (from 65-66%) to position for potential late-summer trouble.

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The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to 1.10 in the week ended July 11th, with large, opposing moves in the sentiment and market action work mostly cancelling one another out. Net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds was trimmed by 5-6% last week to a current target of 60%.

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              The Major Trend Index dropped 0.04 to 1.09 in the week ended July 3rd, matching its lowest reading since last August but remaining in positive territory. Declines in both our sentiment and market action categories drove the decline, and we responded this week by trimming net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds to 60% (from prior levels of 66% in the Core Fund and 65% in the Global Fund).

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We sense that the lack of volatility in the stock market in recent months is beginning to unnerve even the bulls, who seem increasingly compelled to do something in response to the relentless new highs.

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The Major Trend Index rises 0.02 to 1.13 for the week ending June 27, 2014.

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The Major Trend Index registered a third consecutive small loss in the week ended June 20th, falling 0.02 to 1.11.

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The Major Trend Index fell 0.01 to 1.15 in the week ended June 6th, with sizable changes in three categories largely cancelling one another out.

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After sinking to a four-month low of 1.10 mid-month, the MTI rallied in the final two weeks of May to close the month at 1.16—unchanged from the reading four weeks earlier.

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The Major Trend Index rose 0.05 to 1.15 in the week ended May 23rd, bouncing sharply off the four-month low recorded in the prior week

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The Major Trend Index fell 0.02 to 1.10 in the week ended May 16th.

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Despite last Friday’s close in the DJIA at cycle highs, the Major Trend Index for the week slipped 0.04 to 1.12.

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The Major Trend Index remained bullish throughout the month of April, and closed the week of May 2nd at a moderate 1.16—up 0.01 from four weeks earlier.

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The Major Trend Index fell 0.04 to 1.15 in the week ended April 25th, driven largely by a moderate loss in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category.

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The Major Trend Index extended its bullish streak in the week ended April 18^th, rising 0.02 to a level of 1.19.

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The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 to 1.17 in the week ended April 11th, resulting mostly from another weekly gain in the Attitudinal category.

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The Major Trend Index closed the week of April 4th at 1.15, down from a five-month high of 1.21 recorded at the end of February.

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The Major Trend Index dropped 0.07 to 1.14 in the week ended March 28th, driven almost entirely by a steep decline in the Supply/Demand category.

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The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 to 1.21 in the week ended March 21st, matching its high for the rally leg off last summer's lows.

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The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to 1.19 in the week ended March 14th, with none of its categories witnessing a major swing during the week. This continues to support our aggressive net equity exposure levels of 65% in both the Leuthold Core and Global Funds.

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The Major Trend Index declined 0.03 to 1.18 in the week ended March 7th. The MTI and related market disciplines continue to support above-average allocations to equities in the Core Fund and Global Fund; net equity exposure in both funds now stands at 65%.

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