Major Trend Index
Major Trend Closes February At Five-Month High Of 1.21
For the final week of February, the Major Trend Index closed at a five-month high of 1.21, up sharply from 1.09 at the end of January. While this bull market’s duration (five years) and magnitude (S&P gain of +175%) have exceeded our most optimistic expectations, the MTI and its related disciplines continue supporting our above-average exposure to equities in tactical accounts.
Major Trend Hits Five-Month High Of 1.21
The Major Trend Index jumped 0.06 last week to a five-month high of 1.21. We covered a tactical 2% short position, and the Core and Global Funds are positioned fairly aggressively, with net equity exposure of 65% and 63%, respectively.
Bullish Streak Extends To 26 Months
The Major Trend Index remains on its extended bullish streak, closing up 0.03 to 1.15 for the week ended February 14th.
Bullish Major Trend Rises Slightly In Latest Reading
The Major Trend Index rose 0.03 to 1.12 in the week ended February 7th, but it remains on the low end of its positive range.
Major Trend Remains Bullish
The Major Trend Index fell 0.01 to 1.11 in the week ended January 24th, remaining on the low end of its bullish zone.
Major Trend Index Slips But Stays Positive
The Major Trend Index fell 0.03 to 1.12 in the week ended January 17th, a reading that’s on the low end of the tight trading range it’s occupied over the last six months.
Long String Of Moderately Bullish Readings Continues
The Major Trend Index rose 0.02 to 1.15 in the week ended January 10th, continuing a long streak of moderately bullish readings. Both the Core and Global Funds remain positioned fairly aggressively with net equity exposure of 64%.
Major Trend Index Bullish At 1.13
The Major Trend Index continues levitating in moderately bullish territory, closing the week of January 3rd at 1.13. This reading was down 0.02 from the 1.15 recorded in the final weekly reading for November. Net equity exposure in both the Core and Global Portfolios remains around 64%.
Major Trend Jumps to 1.14
The Major Trend Index jumped 0.04 to 1.14 in the final weekly calculation for 2013. While we don’t have a high conviction view for 2014, we enter the year with both the Core and Global Funds fairly aggressively postured with net equity exposure at 64%.
Major Trend Rises Slightly, Stays Bullish
The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to 1.10 in the week ended December 20th. This work remains bullish, but by a narrower margin than for most of 2013. We continue maintaining above-average exposure to equities, with the Core Fund now at a net exposure level of 64% and the Global Fund at 65%.
Major Trend Still Bullish But On A Higher Level Of Alert
The Major Trend Index fell 0.03 to 1.09 in the week ended December 13th. The reading remains bullish, but is now just 0.04 above the 0.95-1.05 neutral zone. We continue targeting net equity exposure of 63% in the Core and Global Funds, but we are now on a higher level of alert.
Major Trend Loses Points But We Stay Bullish
The Major Trend Index was down 0.03 to a reading of 1.12 for the week ended December 6th. Both the Core and Global Funds continue targeting net equity exposure of 63%.
MTI Bullish At 1.15
The Major Trend Index saw little net change last month, dropping 0.02 to 1.15 over the four weeks ended November 29th.
Major Trend Slips But Remains Bullish
The Major Trend Index fell 0.03 to 1.12 in the week ended November 22th. While the bullish margin is now narrower, we closed out the 2% short position in Small Caps; this move brings net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds to 63%.
MTI Slips But Remains Bullish
The Major Trend Index dropped 0.03 to 1.14 in the week ended November 8th. The reading remains bullish, and our net equity exposure in both the Core and Global funds remains at the 60% target we’ve maintained since July.
MTI Remains Bullish; Little Changed in October
The Major Trend Index remained within a fairly narrow, bullish band throughout October, and closed the week ended November 1st at 1.17. This is compared with a final September reading of 1.16.
We Remain Bullish As Major Trend Rises To 1.20
The Major Trend Index rose 0.04 to 1.20 in the week ended October 25. We are increasingly wary of U.S. market valuations, but our disciplines tell us to wait until the MTI deteriorates to negative before taking a major defensive stance.
Major Trend Rises To 1.16
The Major Trend Index rose 0.01 to 1.16 in the week ended October 18th, with gains in the technical category offseting losses in the four other indicator groupings. In line with this work, we continue to target above-average net equity exposure of 60% in both the Core and Global Funds.
Major Trend Rises To 1.15
The Major Trend Index rose 0.03 to 1.15 in the week ended October 11th, a bullish reading that continues supporting our above-average commitments to the stock market.
Major Trend Stays Positive But Slips Again To 1.12
The Major Trend Index fell to 1.12 in the week ended October 4th, down 0.04 for the week and down 0.09 from two weeks earlier. However, we do not expect to make significant changes to net equity exposure.
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