Major Trend Index

Read this week's Major Trend. 

• Read more

Read this week's Major Trend.

• Read more

The hits to the Momentum category were broad-based; the Advance/Decline work continues to disguise a very dangerous, underlying bifurcation of the market.

• Read more

Read this weeek's Major Trend.

• Read more

The Momentum category lost ground in the latest calculation, with more than three-quarters of the loss reflecting a flip in one of our “long-term” momentum sub-models from 50% bullish in the prior week, to maximum bearish at Friday’s close.

• Read more

Growth in M1 and M2 money supply has picked up, offsetting the bearish readings for Adjusted Reserves and the Fed balance sheet. Momentum category also strengthened.

• Read more

The Momentum category improved despite last week’s modest market losses, with some of the longer-term trend work improving. Daily and weekly 52-week lows for the NASDAQ remain elevated, reflecting the increasing concentration of strength in Technology stocks.

• Read more

We think that the economic surprises, as well as the yield uptick, reflect an unwind of extremely one-sided positioning rather than an indication of a second-half economic rebound.

• Read more

The Momentum category continues to grind higher, but this push has predictably stirred up investor enthusiasm (as measured this week by an identical decline in our Attitudinal composite). At the same time, longer-term measures like CEO Confidence, Small Business Optimism, and Consumer Confidence have all weakened in the latest reports, suggesting a rollover in animal spirits could be underway.

• Read more

Read this week's Major Trend.

• Read more

The bounce in the Economic category interrupted its last few months’ steady grind lower; the increase was led mostly by an upgrade to the NOPE Index (ISM New Orders Minus Price Index), which moved from high neutral to moderately bullish. The action of individual components is hardly reassuring, however.

• Read more

The Economic work continues to erode, and it would now be deeply negative if not for the conventional scoring of our leading inflation measures, in which disinflation is viewed as a good thing. But if our suspicions that this economic cycle will end in a deflationary bust are correct, the conventional interpretation will be wrong.

• Read more

A less-publicized, but still worrisome “inversion” occurring beyond the Treasury market is that of Consumer Confidence, in which the Conference Board’s Present Situation Index has soared almost 70 points above the Expectations Index. This gap always becomes extreme in the late stages of an economic expansion, and today’s reading surpasses those recorded at all business cycle peaks other than February 2001.

• Read more

We view market and economic risks as high, but the Momentum picture has been convincing enough to prevent us from adopting a maximally defensive posture.

• Read more

Read this week's Major Trend.

• Read more

We don’t like “news-driven” market moves, and it’s pretty obvious that May’s decline was due in large part to the ramp-up in the trade war. That said, trends in the economy and earnings were already weakening prior to the latest escalation.

• Read more

Aside from the decidedly bearish action in the Treasury yield curve, U.S. and global money supply growth rates remain sluggish; both the Fed balance sheet and the Adjusted Monetary Base are still in outright decline.

• Read more

Weakness in several coincident economic measures suggest that global-policy tightening over the last 18 months is having an impact. The current Fed policy stance doesn’t lead us to believe much improvement is likely in the near term.

• Read more

The Momentum work has been the largest week-to-week MTI swing factor for many months, and that was the case again last week. The Attitudinal category improved, reflecting increasing investor anxiety.

• Read more

Read this week's Major Trend.

• Read more