Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook
Bernanke’s Bad Timing
We can’t imagine what good could come from Ben Bernanke’s September 13th decision to resume money printing. What is the Fed going to do if another risk event hits and the S&P goes down 15-20%? Pray?
Time To Bet On China?
Is it time to reverse the “long U.S. consumer/short China” trade?
Ten Charts To Chew On
There are twelve critical indexes (using Big Ten math) that have failed to “confirm” September’s new cyclical bull market highs in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials.
Chasing Income That Barely Exists
Those adopting LDI today are doing so at the least opportune time in more than 60 years.
Bulls, Bears & The Buck
Our latest testing indicates that relative dollar stability provides the best backdrop for stocks.
Thirty Percentage Points Of Pain…
The S&P 500 is now up 30% from last year’s October 4th low - a rally that surely ranks among the least enjoyable and least exploited gain of that magnitude in history.
Gold: Twelve Years And Going Strong
A textbook, commodity-like top in gold would be a panicky, spiky event that would take the metal well above $2000.
Stock Market Observations
The U.S. bull market is mature and I believe the odds are better than even that 2013 will see a cyclical top.
Major Trend Index Fading As “That Time Of Year” Looms
With “That Time Of Year” approaching and the Major Trend Index not too far above the neutral zone, we review nine factors impacting the stock market from a glass-half-empty perspective.
The Reach For Yield… And Its Consequences
Investor infatuation with portfolio income is higher than ever, just as there is less of it available than at any time in history.
Sentiment And “Seasonals” Collide
Stock market sentiment is overheated, at least on a short-term basis. But does excessively optimistic market sentiment lead to worse September-October market action? Yes it does, but the observations are limited.
Technical Glitches
This summer’s rally has taken stocks to the brink of another bull market high, but it has not been an all-inclusive affair. While the NYSE Daily Advance/Decline Line has remained healthy, other technical indicators have not.
The Risks Of Record Margins…
While the big S&P companies’ EPS have held up, our earnings breadth work has not held up as well. Part of this development can be traced back to February 2011’s “Point of Recognition.”
An “Oversold” Market Turns Up
VLT Momentum fired long-term BUY signals at the end of July on the Russell 2000, MSCI World Index and EAFE - and more signals could be coming…
Fishing Expedition: European Stocks/Non-European Exposure
Most investors don’t like to swim in shark-infested waters, but our screen may make it more comfortable for some to consider getting back in.
Time For A Breather
The Major Trend Index has been bullish throughout 2012, and the S&P 500 has delivered a total return of +12% through early August. Yet few managers have managed to match or exceed that benchmark, to do so, they would have had to be “fully invested and maximum defensive.”
An “Old” Bull Market… That Should Get “Older”
The bull market is increasingly showing signs of advanced age, but that is only to be expected for a move that now measures 40 months off its March 2009 low.
Leuthold Stock Quality Rankings
Leuthold Stock Quality Ranking work is currently showing that High Quality stocks outperformed during the last quarter.
Tuning Up The Printing Presses?
What were QE2 and Operation Twist intended for if not to save Europe?
The Bubble In Bonds...
Yes, we consider U.S. Treasury securities a bubble across the entire yield spectrum, and the situation has probably now moved into “extra innings” (think 10th or 11th) thanks to the flight to (perceived) quality triggered by the European debt crisis.
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