Inside The Stock Market ...trends, cross-currents, and outlook

With no obvious technical resistance left for the U.S. stock market, we’re skeptical of the “long cycle” view, primarily based on valuations and “provincial” data points.

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If you think being “sequestered” or “Cyprussed” is no fun, turn the calendar back a century. 1913 saw the authorization of the Federal Reserve System and the ratification of the income tax amendment to the Constitution. (CNBC’s Rick Santelli would have been apoplectic.)

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At 15.8x Normalized EPS, the non-U.S. developed world (measured by the MSCI World Ex USA Index) still hasn’t managed to recover to its old lows of 18x seen in both 1992 and 2002.

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In this note, we discuss our market-level measure of quality, and highlight an expanded methodology for determining the “quality” of a stock and the performance implications associated with such a concept.

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Changes in a major EM ETF’s benchmark and another big player’s new EM ETF introduction could provide stock pickers opportunities in select Emerging Markets.

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It’s not just kids’ sports where the achievement bar has been lowered. 

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We are in clear view of the “Twin Peaks” S&P 500 highs of the last decade and these should be eclipsed by mid-year. But when the S&P 500 is adjusted for inflation or denominated in Swiss Francs or Gold these highs may prove elusive.

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The late 1970’s bull market has some eerie similarities, and sentiment reflects Main Street’s newfound bullishness. Plus a look at January fund category flows gives us some points to ponder.

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Did we just get a Technical “all clear” sign? Is the trading day getting you down? What about corporate earnings, or sovereign debt and the stock market?

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Our “second best really is best” analysis comes up with an asset class we like and a sector we hate, plus trying it monthly doesn’t work out quite the way we thought it would.

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Some of the best and worst performers of 2011 repeated their performance in 2012.

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Our Stock Quality Rankings currently show that stocks with Low Quality rankings outperformed those with High Quality rankings.

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We’ve lately made it a January tradition to publish a “Rear View Mirror” forecast for S&P 500 returns out to the end of this decade.

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Our annual screen presents the candidates with the largest declines and smallest rebounds, thus far, in each market cap segment.

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While we don’t know which direction it will head next, we break down a few of the MTI categories and present some of our observations.

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Retail stocks barely paused during the September-November market setback, and have lately shot to new all-time relative strength (RS) highs. We were recently asked whether this bullish behavior was effectively an “inoculation” against falling into recession over the near term. 

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A “dozen” major market measures have moved to new bull market highs in the last three months. But many of these have been the groups that do best when “risk” is “off,” and may be a reason “Ain’t Nobody Happy,” even in an up year. 

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We have chosen to have the original MTI “subsume” many critical global measures, and put all of our best efforts into a single tool monitoring the overall stock market environment.

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We’ve published a series of research notes detailing our thoughts on the Health Care sector in Emerging Asia and formed a thematic group “Asia Healthy Tigers.” Even though most of the investable companies in Emerging Market Health Care are located in Asia, we decided to expand to other regions as well. 

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Our Stock Quality Ranking work currently shows stocks with low quality rankings outperforming those with high quality rankings.

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