Equity Strategies Group-Level Analysis Of The Equity Markets

Tech stocks came roaring back in April (Info Tech sector up 22%), but don’t expect another parabolic rise!

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If we get another performance month like April, we may again have to re-christen this as The Internet Opportunity Index.

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Last month, we changed the name of this group. After a bounce in January, the “Internet Debacle Index” continued its freefall.

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Upgrade to Attractive for April led us to this mid/small cap flavored group. Current GS score bolstered by strengthening Value and Judgmental related factors. Group fundamentals should benefit from U.S. infrastructure spending (including utilities) and eventual economic rebound.

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Tech valuations very much back in line, the question is, how low can they go?

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March was an ugly month for the market as a whole, with the S&P 500 diving 6.4% and the NASDAQ plummeted 14.5%. Unlike February, the decline in March was pretty broad based.

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At the market peak, this index (previously dubbed “Internet Insanity Index”), had 75 stocks with a market cap of $1.26 trillion. Currently, there are only 60 stocks, with a combined market cap of just $290 billion (down $970 billion)!

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Once again it looks like the market turned on a dime. In January, we saw many big losers from 2000 bounce back. But in February, things reversed again.

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S&P 500 tech weighting has plunged 43% from February 2000’s peak of 34%. Now at 19%, but expect it may have further to fall in 2001.

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The underlying decline in valuations and tech stock weightings in the cap weighted market indices probably has further to go in 2001.

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The Internet Insanity Index had a big bounce in January. These stocks were severely beaten down and a bounce was expected.

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Upgrade to Attractive last month put Department Stores on our radar, and February’s move into the GS “top ten” confirms the quantitative strength of this group. Improving technicals, stronger than expected January sales and increasing probability of soft landing indicating a promising outlook for this group.

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Quite a reversal of fortune in January, compared to last year. Of the 20 best performers in January, 13 groups are still down over the last twelve months.

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S&P Technology Weighting has fallen to about 21.9% from nearly 35% in February. Expect it to fall to 20% or below (recession?) within the next year.

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The Internet Insanity Index continued to lose ground in December, However, the 4.6% loss was not nearly as devastating as the 36% loss recorded in November.

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Investors are likely happy to see 2000 come to an end. While much of the focus was on the crushing defeat of Tech stocks last year, there were many pockets of strength.

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The Internet Insanity Index was hammered with a 36% loss in November. Some of these companies will likely survive, but many will expire. We advise avoiding the group.

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Group has been rated Attractive since March 2000, but December GS Score elevated it to the top five.

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It was not too hard for our equity groups to outperform during November, as 83 of our 132 equity groups (63%) outperformed the S&P 500, with 41 of these turning in flat or positive returns (31% of all groups). Compared to the NASDAQ, 113 of the groups (86%) performed better.

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November was Tech nightmare but we think about two-thirds of decline is behind us.

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