Equity Strategies Group-Level Analysis Of The Equity Markets

1986 full year and final quarter performance for the major sectors the Leuthold Group regularly tracks, as well as some other areas of interest we are monitoring.

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For the most part, the market’s leading and lagging sectors were a continuation of October’s trends. Quality Growth did well, while deep cyclicals, inflation sensitive issues and financials lagged. Again, we suspect the derivatives had some impact, as big capitalization, heavy weight growth issues typically performed well.

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Only two of the thirty-five equity sectors we regularly track recorded plus signs for the month. The S&P 500 was down 7.7% in the quarter, the DJIA off 6.5%. By the looks of our sector performance distribution, I would venture to say most professionals, maybe 70% or more, failed to beat the S&P.

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We are establishing a new 6% position in the airlines this month. I just heard five Wall Street firms put out new buy recommendations today. Let us hope the crowd is not always wrong.

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Even though the S&P 500 edged into new high ground, with the DJIA coming within a hairbreadth of doing the same, a number of other stock indices have recovered less than half of their July losses.

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The highlights are few. All in all, this was a pretty bloody mess. I suspect most portfolio managers had a tough time holding their losses to less than the markets 6%.

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A rundown of the June and year to date sector leaders.

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This issue we are making this computer screened quantitative theme a formal part of the equity model portfolio. It had been absent from the model since the fall of 1983. Floyd and Leuthold have tuned up this screen over the last few years and believe it is an excellent stock selection technique for the current environment.

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Among the sectors we regularly monitor, the big winners in March were Medical Technology, Shelter and Ethical Drugs. High Tech sector issues and the Oil Patch sector were down on the month while the popular averages scored 5%-7% gains.

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This publication monitors and regularly charts twenty market sectors and only six of these managed to beat the DJIA in February.

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Several months ago Pulte Homes was added to our model as a "special situation" anticipating the possibility of a future broader move into the shelter area.

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For several months now this publication has been waffling on this question.

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Jim Floyd has just completed a quarterly update on five stock selection screens. Some clients find this to be the most valuable work in our publications.

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Jim Floyd has just completed a quarterly update on four stock selection screens. Some clients find this to be the most valuable work in our publications. Herein, you will find the new additions and deletions for our Undervalued & Unloved, Consumer High Growth, Growth Bargain Basket and Bank Double Plays.

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Herein we present statistical tables of 46 public utilities that qualify as potential cash cows with cash flow now exceeding capital expenditures. We also isolate and grade the 24 utilities that we think look the best, explain the investment rationale in more detail and review the important factors investors should consider.

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The “Cash Cow” theme Is divided into two parts. “Cash Cows on the Loose” are big cash generators that are immediate takeover or buyout candidates, and “Cash Cows in Confinement” are large free cash generating regulated utilities. Both categories are added to the model this issue. The use of regulated utilities may be a surprise to most readers.

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Jim Floyd has just finished his quarterly update of four of our conceptual screens. Herein we present the stocks that have been added and deleted in “Undervalued & Unloved,” “Growth Bargain Basket,” “Bank Double Plays,” and “Consumer High Growth.” Descriptions and other statistical comparisons are included.

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On a traditional broad sector basis, only three of the eleven sectors we track recorded positive returns in 1984. Looking at our Conceptual Sectors, there were eight of our sometimes unorthodox stock groupings with positive total returns.

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You may recall this publication turned very negative on High-Tech stocks in the late spring of 1983....certainly one of our better calls. In a summer 1983 Barron’s article, we projected a decline of 45% or more. Hell, it was more. Now it may be time to start buying them back. Some of these beaten up stocks will ultimately become established major factors in their fields. Which ones?

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Jim Floyd has just run new computer screens for the Consumer High Growth sector, Regional Bank Double Plays, the Undervalued & Unloved issues and the Growth Stock Bargain Basket. There are many changes. Each of these screens is discussed with all additions and deletions noted.

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