Equity Strategies Group-Level Analysis Of The Equity Markets

Not much happened in May and the market has surged these first three trading days of June. May action is now very old news. Maybe you should just skip this section this month.

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It was a very dull month in our world of sectors, just as it was for the stock market as a whole.

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February was an outstanding month for many secondary stocks and sectors. Our Emerging Growth quantitative theme turned in the best performance. Smaller technology stocks also did very well, but so did a number of growth consumer issues.

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This issue we are adding two new sectors to our equity model, one being a conceptual theme (“Buy Texas”) and one a Quantitative Theme based computer screen (“Emerging Growth”).

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For a change, the Value Line Index and the NASDAQ performed better than the S&P 500 and DJIA. Inflation beneficiaries, High Yield groups and Value stocks did relatively well. Big Growth stocks (especially Drugs) performed poorly. Small technology stocks were also beat up again.

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A performance run down for our sectors, including experimental sectors, ranked by October performance. Most equity sectors went down significantly more than the S&P 500 during October.

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A performance run down for our sectors ranked by September performance, with 3rd quarter and year to date performance also included.

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 “Almost Bonds”, is viewed as a tactical theme and is basically a defensive strategy that will probably be employed for a year or less. “Graying of America”, is a secular theme that could have a productive investment life of five years or longer.

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A performance run down for our sectors, including experimental, ranked by August performance.

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Our diversified index of oil related stocks is now up 110% from its lows of last summer, although still 22% below its 1980 peak. However, the relative strength line is now approaching its 1980 to date downtrend line.

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We are getting increasingly optimistic about the prospects for Industrial Technology stocks and increasingly cautious about the outlook for Office & Information Technology stocks.

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In terms of sectors and groups, May was an interesting month, even though the popular averages ended the month unchanged.

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It was a strange and narrow market in March, almost a reverse image of the preceding month. The S&P 500 gained 2.6%, the DJIA 3.6%, but very few market sectors outperformed these benchmarks.

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In this issue, our equity portfolio is moving back toward value. Herein we explain why and present the detailed screening results from our most recent set of undervalued screens.

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Overall results for the month indicate Technology was the place to be, but most of the big technology gains came in the first half of the month.

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Inflation sensitive issues are being added to our equity model as a distinct theme, a new tactical play. Although we are not projecting a significant pickup in inflation in 1987, we are coming to believe that Wall Street will mistakenly believe inflation is re-igniting.

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1986 full year and final quarter performance for the major sectors the Leuthold Group regularly tracks, as well as some other areas of interest we are monitoring.

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For the most part, the market’s leading and lagging sectors were a continuation of October’s trends. Quality Growth did well, while deep cyclicals, inflation sensitive issues and financials lagged. Again, we suspect the derivatives had some impact, as big capitalization, heavy weight growth issues typically performed well.

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We are establishing a new 6% position in the airlines this month. I just heard five Wall Street firms put out new buy recommendations today. Let us hope the crowd is not always wrong.

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