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While inflation might have peaked, a material slowdown looks more certain as the Fed stays on an aggressive tightening path. Caution is warranted.

Overall, there are now more warning signs, but it still doesn’t suggest a recession is imminent.

Intuitively, what happens in the credit market is usually echoed by lending activities. This was a key concern when the credit market joined the stock-market rout in May. Another big leg up in real interest costs, through higher rates and/or lower growth, will surely create more headwinds for profit margins.

Historically, a good measure of a fully oversold market has been a drop to negative by our VLT Momentum algorithm. YTD, it has been on the downswing, but is still in the vicinity of its highs reached during the Trump Bump. If the May bottom in the S&P 500 turns out to be the final low for the decline, VLT would be one of many suggesting the new rally is among the riskiest in market history.

We think it’s much too early to be looking for a major bottom in stock prices, but it’s worth reviewing some of the signals that will help confirm such a low is at hand.

Many technicians claim that the rallies of late March and late May generated impressive “breadth thrusts.” We’re skeptical: We’ve tested many tools that attempt to capture such a phenomenon, and found that the most reliable thrust signals aren’t ones that show up every couple of months.

Throughout most of the COVID rebound, market bulls told investors (correctly) to ignore valuations and simply ride the liquidity tide. But with that tide now flowing out (and at possibly its fastest speed ever), guess what the one-time liquidity junkies see as a reason to stay in stocks? Yes, cheaper valuations!

The market impact from money printing has been underwhelming when adjusted for the inflation it’s unleashed. Measured from the peaks associated with the first attempt at Quantitative Tightening, in inflation-adjusted terms, Small Caps, EAFE, and Emerging Markets all have losses.   

In mid-May, S&P 500 Homebuilders officially became a COVID “round-tripper”: After a one-month COVID collapse of 53% and an ensuing rally of almost 250%, this year’s selloff drove Homebuilders to a May 11th close that was a few ticks below its pre-COVID high. Imagine what might happen if the housing market cracks? 

Many economists recommend equity investors to instinctively and aggressively “buy” the inflation peak. History is on their side, though not as overwhelmingly as they might believe.

The dot-com bust was so long ago, most are likely unaware just how catastrophic the long-term Tech-stock returns are when measured back to March 2000. Technology has been the third-worst sector performer on a cumulative basis through May 2022; its +5.2% return has barely beaten 10-year Treasuries.

No one wants to be this cycle’s Chuck Prince. In June 2007, the Citigroup CEO said, “As long as the music’s playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” (Fifteen years later, when one Googles his name, “music playing” is what auto-fills.)

We’re sure that it’s not lost on our readers, but the stock market loves to toy with people. The dollar costs of a decline and the opportunity lost from misplayed manias are bad enough. This particular market, though, seems to take offense when you merely try to label it. Correction or bear? The debate rages on, even though the flagship fund of the lone equity manager who’s a household name is down 75% from its peak—and still raking in money!

Read this week's Major Trend.

AdvantHedge was up 3.1% in May, ahead of the inverse S&P 500 (-0.2%), and the inverse Russell 2000 (-0.2%). Although the overall market ended the month flat, this equity hedge still succeeded in identifying pockets of weakness.

In May the Leuthold Core and Global portfolios both outperformed their benchmarks (which were flat), due to strong performance from their underlying equity strategies.

Stock market corrections are the result of falling valuations and/or falling earnings, and when both conditions appear together, investors are in for a rough ride. Thus far, the 2022 selloff has been confined to compressing P/E ratios, and we launched a research project to take a closer look at shrinking stock valuations in this market downdraft.

A 6.6% gain in the last full week of May brought the S&P 500 right back to where it started the month. As one would expect, the flat market resulted in small changes to the components of our downside estimates, but left our weighted averages for both series unchanged from the previous month.

Read this week's Major Trend.

After nearly two years of persistent and dramatic upward revisions to the forward EPS estimates, there are some recent signs that that party may have ended.