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Read this week's MTI update.

The MTI’s Technical category is still decisively negative at -3, but some of its shorter-term “counter-trend” components look intriguing for the first time in 2022’s entire decline.

See this month's sector rankings.

Energy has solidified its spot atop the GS Scores; it’s by far the highest-rated sector and counts three underlying groups among the top-ten industries out of all the sectors. Valuations have only improved amid steady outperformance, and renewed capital discipline looks to remain for the foreseeable future.

The risk of a policy error is elevated as the Fed stays on an aggressive tightening path even though growth materially slows. Caution is recommended.

The late 2018 policy error and subsequent pivot of Chairman Powell’s rookie year is probably the best case-study for today’s pivot debate. Here we evaluate the current status of key pivot triggers and compare them to the readings of late 2018. Given the political environment and backward-looking nature of the Fed, we think the bar is higher for a pivot than the market hopes.

We have seen the high in bond yields this year and expect a volatile grind lower in rates over the summer: Bearish Treasury positions remain significant, the Copper/Gold ratio fell sharply, and the Citi Economic Surprise Index implies more downside.

The first six months of 2022 have been unpleasant for risk indexes of every stripe. The S&P 500 (World’s Reserve Index) returned almost precisely -20% and its constituents lost $8.45 trillion in market value. Poof, gone. Similar first-half losses by the S&P 400 (-19.5%) and the S&P 600 (-18.9%) resulted in paper forfeitures for its member firms of “only” $518 billion and $221 billion, respectively.

The brutal first half for Growth stocks has valuations approaching their 40-year average, while Small Cap Growth continues to feature a steep discount to that.

Our Ratio of Ratios ends Q2 with the largest Small Cap discount since May 2020. From the start of the year, on an absolute basis, the Large Cap P/E ratio moved from 28.7x to 22.0x; the Small Cap multiple declined to 16.2x from 21.6x.

With the final month of Q1-22 earnings in the books, our Up/Down ratio is 1.05. We should note that this depressed level has preceded or accompanied every recession in our 39-year data set.

The MTI’s Technical category is still decisively negative at -3, but some of its shorter-term “counter-trend” components look intriguing for the first time in 2022’s entire decline. In particular, we’re watching the behavior of a group of indicators that performed brilliantly near the bull market highs.

Most sentiment measures show none of the frothiness that lingered in the months after the Y2K Tech bust. Rather, some exhibit actions reminiscent of early 2008.

Of the prevailing bullish arguments, the one that strikes us as the weakest is that there’s “too much pessimism.” Much like in 2000, some pundits disingenuously made that claim before the market rolled over. But at this point, with the market now down big and economic numbers suddenly wobbly, the last thing any bull should want is too much pessimism.

Remember the good old days (like even a year ago) when one didn’t need to mentally tabulate investment results in inflation-adjusted terms? For a blissful couple of decades, nominal and real returns were so close together that the latter figure seemed irrelevant.

The enormity of the preceding mania and its vicious unwind have us believing the current bear could unfold over a much lengthier time than is typical. But a combo of time cycles suggests a major low is due any time.

We previously promised to limit the amount of comparisons to Y2K, but the paths that a number of the usual suspects are taking look more and more like “something we’ve seen before”—in some cases down to the percentage point.

Based on a short-term perspective, stocks may be ripe for a bounce. However, the S&P 500 has not reached “oversold” territory since early 2016, and it is still a long way from doing so. Of the major indexes, only the Russell 2000 is now positioning to soon claim a “low-risk buy” signal. 

The bear was a mere cub back in March when we examined the historical record of buying S&P 500 dips in the -10% to -12% range. “Blindly” buying them turned out to have mediocre returns, but we illustrated that the positions of various business-cycle indicators could help one determine whether or not catching the proverbial “falling knife” was warranted.

Key indicators are indeed trending in “pre-recessionary” fashion. Among them is the ISM New Orders Index, which dipped into contraction territory in June while inventories increased. Others are the JOLTS that shows a strong (but weakening) labor market, and unemployment claims—which have ticked up.