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Private pension funds as a class can no longer be looked to as big net buyers of stock. More and more, the individual is assuming direct or indirect responsibility for his or her retirement assets. We view this as a secular trend, not a short-term aberration.

Have you ever looked at a gold price chart denominated in Swiss Francs or Deutsche Marks? It is a much different picture than gold in dollars. Perhaps the U.S. perspective is warped.

Observations from the May Market Technicians Association gathering at Hilton Head and a disturbing recent 400-mile drive through the grain belt. For good measure we have thrown in an update on improving agricultural productivity around the world.

May was a dynamite month for bonds, with total returns of 9%-10% registered for most long issues. Long zeros racked up gains in excess of 20%. The bond market now is ahead of itself although the Major Trend remains bullish.

Herein we present statistical tables of 46 public utilities that qualify as potential cash cows with cash flow now exceeding capital expenditures. We also isolate and grade the 24 utilities that we think look the best, explain the investment rationale in more detail and review the important factors investors should consider.

The View from Down Under…Answering Some Questions: questions and comments about last issue’s essay on “The Value of Independence”…Yours from Minnesota, Ohio

April was disappointing. A better market was expected. The lack of deficit reducing progress in Washington is disturbing; but our Major Trend Index, while losing some points from last month, is still comfortably positive. At this point it is appropriate to be guided by the Index rather than emotions.

High P/E Quality stocks are now very cheap on a relative basis, at least when compared to low P/E stocks. Unfortunately, our timing work does not yet show favorable market momentum developing for these issues.

The “Cash Cow” theme Is divided into two parts. “Cash Cows on the Loose” are big cash generators that are immediate takeover or buyout candidates, and “Cash Cows in Confinement” are large free cash generating regulated utilities. Both categories are added to the model this issue. The use of regulated utilities may be a surprise to most readers.

Regardless of the recent reported upticks in the GNP Deflator and CPI, our Early Warning Inflation work provides little if any evidence that inflation is beginning to accelerate. Five of our inflation analytical tools are presented and discussed, along with the risks of Deflation.

About half the April gain to peak levels was lost in the last few days of the month. Short-term, a long T-bond trading range of 11.30%-11.70% is expected, but the Major Trend remains bullish. A break in the deficit impasse could kick off a new upsurge.

We remain bullish short-term, long-term and very long-term. T-Bonds are expected to move to 11.25%-11.50% before April is over.

Jim Floyd has just finished his quarterly update of four of our conceptual screens. Herein we present the stocks that have been added and deleted in “Undervalued & Unloved,” “Growth Bargain Basket,” “Bank Double Plays,” and “Consumer High Growth.” Descriptions and other statistical comparisons are included.

March was a month of divergences, but April is expected to be a good up month. The Major Trend Index remains comfortably positive, though less so than a month ago. Our Early Warning Work still advises some short-term caution, but could change momentarily.

How do you make a stock market play on the declining dollar? This is not as simple as it may first appear. Three approaches are discussed, concluding the best approach might be buying selected major U.S. exporters.

The Value of “Independence”: There are many changes going on in the third-party research business, changes that potentially may have a major impact on independent research firms such as The Leuthold Group…..Don’t Blame It All on the Dollar: The overpriced dollar is hardly the cause of all this country’s balance of payment woes.

Turnover in the top 60 stocks most heavily owned by institutions is higher than normal. Some of the changes were expected while others were mild surprises.

Start to worry when over 60% of a company’s shares are held by institutions. When a heavily owned stock disappoints its holders, watch out. In this section, 42 stocks are listed where 75 or more institutions cumulatively own more than two thirds of the shares outstanding.

Drug stocks a play on the weak dollar?...perhaps not as good a play as most think. Herein we compare the market performance of drug stocks with the dollar from 1975 to date.

Bonds weren’t more fun in February. 5%-6% declines for the month were the rule at the long end. The expected correction in the bond market is underway and could be about over.