Latest Research

A number of years ago The Leuthold Group developed an analytical tool we call the Royal Blue Index.

For the month the bond market, except for Municipals, ended just slightly lower than it started.

Another New Year has arrived. Again tradition must be honored. Blacked-eyed peas have been consumed.

Several months ago Pulte Homes was added to our model as a "special situation" anticipating the possibility of a future broader move into the shelter area.

For several months now this publication has been waffling on this question.

1985 was a vintage year for bonds, with long bond total returns more than matching the big publicized move in equities.

Only one of the screens that follow has economic sector commonality (Consumer High Growth).

The December Bottom Fishing Expedition…Where the Speculative Action Is…Revising Our Troubles Away…Annual Dow Jones Tirade…It’s Not Getting Any Better in Rural America

The current advance was an unusually slow starter, but November really cooked. The DJIA was up 7%, the S&P 500 up 6.5% with the Value Line up about the same, evidence that the market is broadening out.

It is beginning to look like some rigid spending controls may be put in place this year. The Senate seems determined to stand its ground, using the debt ceiling as a club to bring the House along. If this takes place it could bring a blow off in both markets. If it does not, watch out!

Quality Growth stocks led the market in November and are now also outperforming the market year to date. Now that we have so many value players, is the stage set for an extended period of big growth stock leadership?

Long T-bonds have broken into single digit territory but not by much. However, all in all, bond market action was amazingly good in November, all things considered. Hold existing bond positions. Action on the deficit could bring a blow off move.

This is an index developed in the summer of 1985 made up of U.S. stocks potentially most subject to South African divestiture selling pressure. It includes companies given bad Sullivan ratings and those who have not become signatories. A.D. Little released new Sullivan ratings Nov. 1 and there have been a number of changes.

The aging U.S. bull market can’t expect to get much help from investors east of New York.

Our Major Trend Index is deteriorating. Most disturbing has been the continued deterioration in this work over the last few weeks as the overall market has seemingly improved. This is not typical.

Are you a value investor? Or are you a sub-value investor? “In Focus” this month deals with the different approaches to being an “undervalued investor” - both past and present. Today’s risks and rewards of being an undervalued investor are explored.

The bond market is back up trying to punch through its old peaks of June, July and September 1985.

After years of historical research and endless plotting of productivity trends, our constant vigilance and ceaseless monitoring of vital economic and industrial currents has revealed an amazing correlation. Herein Mr. Leuthold offers his sage wisdom and several solutions to domestic sagging productivity.

Jim Floyd has just completed a quarterly update on five stock selection screens. Some clients find this to be the most valuable work in our publications.