Latest Research

Major Trend still in "negative" territory and continues to deteriorate. Downside equity market risk viewed as significant.

New equity supply running $1.5 billion per week, with U.S. focus equity fund inflows now about $0.7 billion per week (no longer in balance).

A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by April performance.

A performance check on defensives for the last two months.

Leuthold "Polling the Pros" reveals that the consensus looks for a correction on a three month basis. One year poll has more balanced outlook.

Even after the March correction, this valuation exercise uncovers only limited upside (+15% to 1987 peaks) and significant downside (-25%, back to median valuations).

Economic expansion now 40 months old...Yes, it has been somewhat anemic, but nevertheless it may be well past middle age. Getting real about risk: risk is not the same as volatility.

Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative, but market now in 7.50%-8.00% accumulation zone. Yield curve looks like it may be flattening out.

Another of our many new sectors over the last two years: "Buy California?" Not yet part of the Leuthold Equity Portfolio, but looks interesting.

Major Trend Index turned "negative" March 8 and has continued to deteriorate.

Some 1994 potential catalysts which could shift stock market psychology.

A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by first quarter performance.

Bond funds experienced new redemptions in March, but U.S. focus equity funds still experiencing significant inflows.

The best results were recorded in October, before we bought the "Bounce" stocks. The only positive note is that our subsets were not down as much as the S&P 500 over this five month period.

Is sophisticated the same as smart? Market neutral operations are supposed to involve little or no market risk, so how could the entire asset base go down the drain?

Streisand concert tickets got more bids than treasuries in late March and the first day of April. It was a painful period for both bond and stock investors.

Many professional portfolio managers are "equity only" managers, precluded from building up large cash reserves or investing in equity alternatives. This section should be of special interest to readers that fit this profile.

Observations and opinions on REITs as well as highlights from a recent institutional investor REIT forum.

Major Trend Index drops back to "neutral" territory. Don't jump the gun and assume the Index will fall to "negative".

February was a tough month for the stock market. Stock Market performance during various GDP and earnings growth environments and what we currently view as the most likely scenarios for 1994.