Latest Research

In last month’s “In Focus” section, “The Tactical Case For Gold Stocks”, we outlined our rationale for adding to our “North American Golds” sector.

Among institutional favorite type stocks, the Dream Individual Stock Portfolio was up 23.6%, while the Nightmare Portfolio was down 20.7%

Weight of the evidence discipline improved from negative to neutral this month.  Long T-bond six and twelve month risk seen only as 8.50% level.

Our most significant call was the mid-year major move into "Gilt Edged Growth" stocks...the worst may have been an early 1994 move into REITs (we still like them).

A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors ranked by year to date performance.

Combination of seasonal trend and recent sharp drop in gold shares too tempting to pass up.

The traditional "Bounce" accumulation season is here but so far we haven't played the game. We may play the "Bounce" in December, but only if stocks sell-off sharply, or perhaps the last week of the month.

Economy Humming Along...Fed Not Done Yet...Inflation Still Number One Worry

The Economic Surprise And Inflation, The Feds Overheating Economy And Inflation Fears Are Justified and “Contract With America”: The Danger Is Big Tax Cuts But Minimal Spending Cuts

Bond market decline may be in find stages, but stock market can stilll fall 20%- 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.

Public investment sentiment, as reflected by equity mutual fund cash flows, is becoming considerably more cautious.

The S&P 500 declined 4.0% for the month of November and is now down 1.7% for the year to date.

"Retailing Resurgence” held up well in November and we have not given up on Santa Claus yet.

Positive net cash flows into U.S. focus mutual funds are no longer overwhelming new equity offerings. But no investor panic yet.

Bond market decline may be in final stages, but stock market can still fall 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.

New equity offerings now about matching net inflows into U.S. focus equity mutual funds. Still no evidence of net redemptions for U.S. focus equity funds.

Has this been an "invisible bear market” with internal rolling corrections in stocks, groups and sectors? A new index from Ned Davis shows this is probably not the case.

Contrary to what others may conclude, current long term investor optimism is high (this may not be good).

Performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by October performance.

Consumer confidence is high, the economy is solid. We do not think Christmas 1994 is yet reflected in many retailing stocks. Look at this like a retailing “bounce" opportunity.