Latest Research

Big cap bias in market may be driven by increased enthusiasm for index funds...S&P becoming difficult to beat...

Major Trend remains positive, total equity exposure remains at 58%, using index options to minimize and reduce risk. The “new valuation era” continues. Demand for U.S. equity funds continues to be key driver.

A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.

“Retail Rebound?”, a new Leuthold sector, among the Q1 performance leaders...may not remain there if economic progress reverts back to sluggish.

While Earnings Momentum looked relatively strong for the fourth quarter of 1995, there are some very early warning signals beginning to appear.

“In Search Of Earnings Disappointments”, Jim Floyd’s late March “The Numbers Game” publication and Perception II’s new clean look. The U. S. Murder rate is now decreasing…This is very surprising to most of us. The Republicans have cleaned house in the House, sharply reducing costs and improving efficiencies.

Major Trend Index now positive, after changing weight of equity fund flows. Additional changes made in technical breadth and momentum measures should increase responsiveness when the current “new valuation era” closes down.

With MTI turning positive, total equity exposure was increased to over 50% (now 58%) using index options to minimize and reduce risk...“new valuation era” continues...demand for U.S. equity funds continues to be key driver.

Big cap bias in market may be driven by increased enthusiasm for index funds. S&P becoming difficult to beat, P/E ratios of Royal Blue tiers compressing.

A review of the major stock market positives and negatives as Steve currently views them. There are now six major positives and four major negatives.

Performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by year to date performance.

While we have not given up here yet, our tactical purchase of this group could be a very short term play.

Bond market was pummeled in February by weaker dollar, aggressive hedge fund selling, and Mr. Greenspan’s positive economic comments which cast doubts on further significant Fed easing.

There have been some big headline earnings disappointments, but the overall earnings trend remains pretty solid for now. Based on our analysis of up earnings reports/down earnings reports, things look good. The current ratio is still indicative of a strong economy.

Frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy. Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions appearing the January issue.

No January effect this year. It was a large cap show, with the DJIA (+5.4%) outperforming 85%-90% of stock groups and sectors for the month and the S&P trouncing about 70%.

This was the worst year ever for this strategy. In the previous two years, results did not live up to historical expectations. But this year, results were terrible.

During the month of January, two major stock market positive factors became more positive, three remained about the same, and one became less positive. Among the four negative factors, all four became more negative.

Major Trend Index modification will be made this week...weights of two mutual fund inflow components will be doubled due to their significance.

Performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by January's performance.