Latest Research

Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow, inflation should remain under control, and corporate earnings momentum should gradually fade.

Leuthold Group’s Commodity Diffusion Index sell signal now looks like a false alarm. The 1996 budget deficit gap is closing at a faster rate than even Clinton’s administration expected. Have Republicans misread what the majority of Americans want from their political leaders?

Last month’s edition of the Green Book, highlighted several new sector areas of coverage which we anticipated rolling out this month. In all, there are eleven new sectors now included in SS Score rankings.

A new sector holding is being initiated in “Ecology Technology”. This sector has experienced about 4 years of lagging performance, but may now be poised to become an outperformer.

Major Trend close to reverting to negative status with ratio at 0.95. Shades of 1968, that great speculative garbage market. 1996 is looking like a replay...it’s just like old times...greed, excitement, performance chasing, and no earnings IPO’s.

Baby boomers are investing in stock funds at the rate of $100 per month for every living American!

Andy Engel’s new “broad” Technology Composite, an all-inclusive representative tech group and Jim Floyd’s “Super Tech” sector, comprised of internet, communications and networking companies.

Bond market decline slowed in May. But positive economy news, potential Fed tightening (not likely near-term), and labor inflation still disturb bond market investors.

Looking out ten years, can today’s overvalued stock market outperform 7% Treasury zeros?

Increased emphasis and expanded coverage of Leuthold Group’s sector/industry work. Ten new sectors expected next month. Minnesota comes to Vegas with Lyle Berman’s Stratosphere and Evel Knutson, former daredevil Norwegian stock trader from Bagley, MN has some nasty things to say about the movie “Fargo”!

New 15% “Buy California” sector activated. Qualifying companies are required to generate 25% of revenues from California, however, our buy list focused on those generating 50% or more.

Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by April performance.

U.S. market in a temporary new valuation era and reminiscent of last leg up in Tokyo stock market in late eighties. Driving force has been the public’s belief that you “can’t lose” with equity fund shares.

April market showered investors with several interesting changes. Technology stocks recovered their sizzle as PC shipments came in better than expected and Internet buyout fever ran prices up. Secondary stocks scored a TKO.

A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.

Current studies show significant downside potential from current levels. Today's market valuation now more extreme than 1987's, and far above historical medians.

Bond market retreated in April and early May as Q1 GDP came in well ahead of estimates, raising expectations that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. Longer term, yields could move toward 5%, if confidence in U.S. dollar is rebuilt via fiscal reform.

Bond market was punished again in March by continued (forced?) hedge fund selling and unexpected stronger economic signals casting doubts on further Fed easing. Rising labor costs and higher energy and grain prices provided reasons for worry.

Insight derived from Jim Bianco’s excellent Market Commentaries. At Arbor Trading Group Inc., Jim does some of the best, original, and thought provoking work that comes into our shop.

Performance rundown for The Leuthold Group’s equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by first quarter performance.