Latest Research

Major Trend now Positive, with ratio of 1.16...Biggest bull market in history rolls on, pushing farther above past valuation extremes. Key client questions on stock market and Major Trend answered.

In 1996, and so far in 1997, the broad based technology move has been breaking down. The relative strength line of the Technology Composite index tells the story.

Goldilocks economy keeps rolling along, but earnings recovery has been nothing short of spectacular.

There has been a declining trend in weekly inflows since early January. The strongest seasonal flows are in the first 3 1/2 months of a year (through April 15). 1997’s strongest inflows may now be history.

Market volatility 1997 to date well above 1992-1996 levels and also above median levels 1957 to present…characteristic of transition years and bear markets.

The market mechanism is being increasingly overwhelmed by the sheer size and trading practices of today’s institutional players.

In June, the DJIA and S&P 500 again exerted their dominance, as each outperformed about 70% of the sectors we track. On a YTD basis, these two market indices have now beaten about 80% of the sectors.

Last 15 years have been the best 15 year stock performance period ever recorded. Many of today's investors expect this to be the norm. Next 3, 5, 10, or 15 year time periods cannot be expected to rival current returns.

Fed may tighten later in the year to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry. U.S. rates very competitive with foreign yields.

The strong and broad May stock market moved the multi-factor Major Trend Index discipline up from Negative to Neutral status.

Cable hooks up with VLT Momentum measure to improve to Attractive.

There was a significant role reversal in May, as small caps significantly outperformed large caps. As a result, about 65% of the sectors we track outperformed the DJIA and S&P 500.

Market volatility 1997 to date well above 1992-1996 levels and also above median levels 1957 to present...characteristic of transition years and bear markets.

Balanced budget agreement assumes current economic expansion will run about 12 years, longer than any other in history.

It will happen again! Relative overweights in small caps will be an advantage instead of disadvantage to portfolio managers. Small caps can grow earnings faster.

S&P heaviest weights now experiencing accelerating earnings momentum. Best broad sector earnings momentum: Energy and Healthcare...Worst: Basic Materials, Utilities, and Technology.

ICI reported April net inflows at $10.6 billion, down considerably from January and February but up from March.

Current government wage inflation statistics don’t jibe with today’s real world. Future releases will show a significant jump.

Bottom Ten sectors per SS Scores have been significantly underperforming the S&P 500. Discipline appears to be effective in identifying lagging sectors.

Bond market looks attractive on 6-12 month basis. Economic expansion long in the tooth, but still surprisingly strong...Fed may tighten next time to slow down economy. Inflation cool, but wage pressures a worry.