Latest Research

Composite Leuthold technology sector not exhibiting characteristics of market leadership. But, new Leuthold Big 10 Technology Sector (largest 10 tech names) tells quite a different story.

Is Warren Buffett doing some very significant selling? I think this might be the case. Leuthold Group three part series on deflation will be sent to clients in September and October. Also, the 10th Anniversary of 1987’s stock market peak: two important “then” and “now” comparisons.

Major Trend Index faded to High Neutral in August, but will likely be propelled back to Positive by strong September 2nd market…Valuations still off the charts, but new valuation era looks like it’s still with us.

Doubtful, at this point. Relative performance “catch up” not conclusive...Abnormal downdraft in large caps a big contributing factor.

In August, there were two weeks of net outflows from U.S. focus equity funds, the most recent was so small it hardly shows up on the chart.

In August, a very high 38% of the trading days qualified as high volatility days.

Ten largest S&P 500 stocks had latest four quarter earnings rise +19%, compared with top 25 companies +15%, top 100 companies +13% and bottom 200 companies +4%.

Margin debt was $116 billion in July, up from $80 billion a year ago. This marks a record high in terms of dollars, as a percent of GDP, and as a percentage of total stock market value.

The balanced budget: politicians had to move fast because the budget looked as if it might balance itself without their help. Wage Inflation: our belief that it has been accelerating has been wrong, particularly in Q2.

Today’s great bull market has broken most past behavioral guidelines and precedents. It’s a different animal and could terminate as most manias do...with little forewarning and a waterfall decline.

In this year’s 147 trading days (through July 31) there have been 29 days with up moves of 1% or more. Four of those days were up over 2%.

Technically, even after July’s move, the relative strength line is closer to breaking down (below 70) than it is to making a new high above the 1995 peak (above 80).

While the long term implications of a capital gains tax cut might be bullish, I would expect the intermediate term impact to be negative.

For July, our estimate is that $18 billion flowed into U.S. focus equity funds. This would be the largest monthly inflow since January 1997, and far more than last July’s depressed $3.7 billion.

Cash no longer considered to be part of an equity portfolio...risk is considered to be the consequence of underperforming the S&P 500, not the impact of a bear market.

Small cap earnings momentum appears to have improved significantly in Q2. Big cap faded somewhat, with one-third of database yet to report.

Returning to the scene and buying “Crimestoppers,” which returned to Attractive after serving nine month sentence in Neutral.

“Major Drugs” hit Attractive in June, slipped to High Neutral in July, and moved back to Attractive in August.

On a YTD basis, the DJIA and S&P 500 indices have now beaten more than 75% of the sectors we track. Big caps have so far clearly dominated over most of 1997.

How long can the Goldilocks’ economy keep going? The current economic expansion (at 25 quarters) is long in the tooth by historical standards. Inflation outlook improved. Shortage of treasury bonds to become a reality?