Latest Research

Many of the questions in this month’s issue came from January client meetings in Texas.

If January’s net outflow is a precursor of what we might see during the balance of 2003, Main Street investors will miss a golden opportunity to invest during an early recovery phase of one of the greatest bear markets in history.

AOL write down of goodwill will create the widest difference between reported and operating earnings ever.

We would view a new buy signal as a bullish confirmation of the previous buy signal (registered October 30th).

NASDAQ ratio declines on increased volume. A new style this month gives the NYSE ratio more timely signals.

S&P 500 volatility running strong in January while the NASDAQ is still high but down from peaks.

“Outside The Lines”: Incumbent protection now makes a Congressional seat virtually permanent.

See strong opportunities after a two year shakeout has left the strongest players standing...now with improved balance sheets. The industry is not going away.

This thematic group shifted to attractive for February after slow but steady improvement over last six months.

Based on the broad market comparators, the new year got off to a poor start.

The broad Tech sector is down significantly from all time highs, but is still not cheap by traditional measures. Upside driver will have to be new earnings momentum developing.

We think it is inadvisable to make a positive sector bet.

Despite the strong gains in Q4, the stock market ended 2002 down substantially.

December proved to be a fitting end to what is now the first net redemption year since 1988. Plus, a preview of the cash flow trends for all major asset catego­ries (using our own December 2002 estimates).

Valuation tools comparing stock earnings yields to bond yields (i.e. the Fed Valuation Model) are worthless. History shows they don’t perform very well at all.

Through the end of 2002, reported big block net sales totaled $24 billion, compared to net selling of $40 billion in 2001 and $72 billion in 2000.

Poor performance by large cap technology and nifty fifty type issues had a very negative impact on S&P 500 cap weighted performers for the past three years.

This month’s ratio increased to 3.54 from 2.72, marking the highest ratio ever recorded.

Technology stocks retreat in December, as our broad tech index lost 16.0%.  However for all of Q4 Tech was up 33%.

A critical examination of what we thought was the best of The Leuthold Group’s research in 2002, as well as what was not so good.