Latest Research

The renewed participation of credits in the risk asset rally is a welcome sign.

There are signs the domestic Chinese market may be more accessible to global investors sooner than most think. We explore the implications of these potential changes.

Year-to-date, equity funds are cash on par with those of the 2000 tech bubble, while bond mutual funds are experiencing net cash outflows for the first time in a decade.

We are in the seasonally favorable part of the year and we continue favoring high-grade credits within fixed income.

Given our assumption of no December taper and the fact that most of the recent rise in interest rates is due to an early-taper fear, we expect the 10-year yield to drop back to the 250 level.

Stocks with High Quality rankings have outperformed those with Low Quality rankings for the past few months. The junk rally is at or near an end, and investors may want to shift their attention to High Quality stocks.

Has recent Fed experimentation compromised the stock market’s “social function” as an economic forecasting tool?

The margin expansion story of the last 20 years is a financial one, not an operating one.

Forward earnings might be the greatest Wall Street innovation in history: a tool that makes the stock market look cheap all the time.

Current median valuations are almost identical to those seen at the bull market highs of March 2000 and October 2007.

The cyclical bull market is approaching its fifth birthday. Should you be nervous? Yes, but not so much because of its age.

If a bear market is imminent, it will unfold with less “internal” forewarning than any cyclical decline since the late 1930s.

The inflation-adjusted all-time high for the S&P 500 is currently 2061, a figure we think will be just out of reach for 2014.

The “dual mandate,” which means the Fed is paying close attention to both inflation and employment, presents a clear dilemma for the Fed when it comes time to decide on a taper.

Momentum and Value worked in 2013. Materials and Financials were the easiest sectors to exploit; Discretionary and Tech the most difficult. Momentum works in December; Value and Small Caps at the start of the year.

The Major Trend Index fell 0.03 to 1.12 in the week ended November 22th. While the bullish margin is now narrower, we closed out the 2% short position in Small Caps; this move brings net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds to 63%.

Another week of estimated net outflows ($6.6 billion) has caused the bond mutual fund category to breach new lows.

Domestic equity mutual fund net cash flows continued their positive streak with an estimated $3.4 billion in net inflows this week.

The Major Trend Index dropped 0.03 to 1.14 in the week ended November 8th. The reading remains bullish, and our net equity exposure in both the Core and Global funds remains at the 60% target we’ve maintained since July.