Latest Research

We like when we can find groups inside of broad themes, and these two industries are amongst the strongest in our work right now.

Sector weight changes during November were minimal. 

The S&P 500 gained 2.8% (price only) in November. Based on the valuation metrics presented below, the S&P 500 has 14% downside to its historical average.

The Major Trend Index saw little net change last month, dropping 0.02 to 1.15 over the four weeks ended November 29th.

Growth Stocks Lead YTD In All Three Cap Categories.

Considering the market’s strength, we are pleased with the performance of our short portfolios.

Small Caps are selling at a 20% valuation premium relative to Large Caps, using non-normalized trailing operating earnings.

Select Industries added exposure to Health Care Distributors and Multi-Line Insurance. Global Industries deactivated Media and purchased Health Care Services. 

The Major Trend Index remains positive and, as expected, our temporary ETF hedge was lifted. Our net exposure in both portfolios is now 64%-65%.

The renewed participation of credits in the risk asset rally is a welcome sign.

There are signs the domestic Chinese market may be more accessible to global investors sooner than most think. We explore the implications of these potential changes.

Year-to-date, equity funds are cash on par with those of the 2000 tech bubble, while bond mutual funds are experiencing net cash outflows for the first time in a decade.

We are in the seasonally favorable part of the year and we continue favoring high-grade credits within fixed income.

Given our assumption of no December taper and the fact that most of the recent rise in interest rates is due to an early-taper fear, we expect the 10-year yield to drop back to the 250 level.

Stocks with High Quality rankings have outperformed those with Low Quality rankings for the past few months. The junk rally is at or near an end, and investors may want to shift their attention to High Quality stocks.

Has recent Fed experimentation compromised the stock market’s “social function” as an economic forecasting tool?

The margin expansion story of the last 20 years is a financial one, not an operating one.

Forward earnings might be the greatest Wall Street innovation in history: a tool that makes the stock market look cheap all the time.