Latest Research

This bull market has appeared to be on shaky technical ground before, only for concerns to be swept aside. This time, we think it’s different.

Transportation stocks have confounded conventional wisdom about their presumed relationship with oil during the past three years.

As expected, our VLT Momentum algorithm triggered a “low-risk” cyclical buy signal on crude oil in late October, only the 11th buy signal in the past 30 years. This algorithm was originally designed to identify low-risk entry points into the stock market, but we’ve found it useful with other assets as well.

In Q2, NIPA’s EBIT margin fell to a new four-year low, over one point below the early 2012 cycle peak.

One of the drawbacks advantages of tracking so many market indicators is that one can invariably cherry-pick a single measure that supports a given narrative.

MSCI will soon announce the results of its semi-annual index rebalance and, for the first time, overseas-listed Chinese companies will be included in the MSCI Emerging Market and China Country Indexes.

A strong dollar and low commodity prices are major forces dragging down EM currencies across the board.

Over the past three months the Tech sector has strengthened in our work, as it’s risen back to the #3 position. In line with our disciplines, we increased the Select Industries Portfolio’s Tech exposure via the addition of a new, high-ranking group: Technology Distributors.

Growth Edges Out Value As Stocks Rebound

We are moving to a more constructive stance towards credits within the Fixed Income space.

Airlines has spent only three months below “Attractive” since early 2012 and the group’s factor category scores continue to provide solid results. We also like the growth prospects for Drug Retail and Apparel Retail.

S&P 500: Best Month In Four Years

We think higher Quality Corporate bonds offer a better reward/risk profile now.

The Major Trend Index jumped 0.11 to 0.91 using data for the week ended Oct. 23rd.  The increase came on the heels of a large gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category, and puts the ratio closer to its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone than at any time since its initial negative reading in early August. 

The Major Trend Index fell 0.02 to 0.80 using data for the week ended October 16th, with a solid gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category overshadowed by losses in three other categories.

The Major Trend Index rose a solid 0.10 to a ratio of 0.82 using data for the week ended October 9th; the improvement entirely reflecting a predictable bounce in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category in the wake of last week’s market rebound.

U.S. focus equity fund outflows are higher than ever before....while foreign focus fund inflows have surged.

Our AdvantHedge gross composite gained an impressive 9.6% in September, significantly outperforming the inverse performance of the S&P 500 (-2.5%), Russell 2000 (-4.9%), and NASDAQ (-3.2%).

Select Industries gross composite lost 2.4% in September, performing in-line with the S&P 500 (-2.5%).

Global Industries (based on Global Industries, L.P. gross return) lost 2.2% in September, beating the MSCI ACWI (-3.6%).

Advertising has been in the top rankings of our Group Selection (GS) model for several months.