Latest Research

We are moving to a more constructive stance towards credits within the Fixed Income space.

Airlines has spent only three months below “Attractive” since early 2012 and the group’s factor category scores continue to provide solid results. We also like the growth prospects for Drug Retail and Apparel Retail.

S&P 500: Best Month In Four Years

We think higher Quality Corporate bonds offer a better reward/risk profile now.

The Major Trend Index jumped 0.11 to 0.91 using data for the week ended Oct. 23rd.  The increase came on the heels of a large gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category, and puts the ratio closer to its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone than at any time since its initial negative reading in early August. 

The Major Trend Index fell 0.02 to 0.80 using data for the week ended October 16th, with a solid gain in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category overshadowed by losses in three other categories.

The Major Trend Index rose a solid 0.10 to a ratio of 0.82 using data for the week ended October 9th; the improvement entirely reflecting a predictable bounce in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category in the wake of last week’s market rebound.

U.S. focus equity fund outflows are higher than ever before....while foreign focus fund inflows have surged.

Our AdvantHedge gross composite gained an impressive 9.6% in September, significantly outperforming the inverse performance of the S&P 500 (-2.5%), Russell 2000 (-4.9%), and NASDAQ (-3.2%).

Select Industries gross composite lost 2.4% in September, performing in-line with the S&P 500 (-2.5%).

Global Industries (based on Global Industries, L.P. gross return) lost 2.2% in September, beating the MSCI ACWI (-3.6%).

Advertising has been in the top rankings of our Group Selection (GS) model for several months.

The Core Portfolio’s gross composite lost 0.6% in September, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s loss of 2.5%.

The third and final month of Q2 earnings reports registered an Up/Down Ratio of 1.18. This is the second lowest “three month” reading of the past 23 quarters.

The Major Trend Index defied the wild swings of the past few weeks, remaining within a tight range deep in its bearish zone, before closing the week of October 2nd at 0.72.

Small Cap Premium Down To 7%

Major Trend Index remains decisively negative at 0.72. The “market action” category is the primary culprit behind this bearish tally, but we’ve also seen the Economic category deteriorate in recent months and would expect this trend to continue. This sequence is typical: Market action leads economic trends (and, we would argue, is a major cause of those trends).

The August market break did not emerge from out of the blue. The foundation for the bear case was put in place many months before those four ugly days in late August.

We reviewed 100 years of evidence for the Dow Jones Industrials Average and found no compelling evidence for a “bounce” effect. Contrary to expectations, fourth quarter Dow performance has (on average) been stronger when the index has already booked a gain through the first nine months.

It’s been more than two years since NYSE Margin Debt broke out above its 2007 high, and we remember the rash of bearish commentary that accompanied that milestone. We later showed the Margin Debt increase was almost perfectly proportional to the gain in the stock market itself, and not a reason to turn bearish in and of itself. But our tune has changed.

Foreign valuations experienced nowhere near the expansion enjoyed by U.S. stocks during the latest bull market, but their cheaper valuations rarely seem to inoculate them from outsized losses during corrections and bear markets.