Latest Research
Volatile markets in 2018 have lent to relatively subdued mutual fund (MF) and ETF inflows.
Read moreBased on data for the week ended March 30th, the Major Trend Index recorded a second consecutive reading in negative territory.
Read moreThe Major Trend Index fell into its negative zone last week and we trimmed the already below-average net equity exposure in tactical accounts by a few more points, to a current 41-42%.
Read moreThe Supply/Demand work plummeted last week with three unrelated “smart money” measures all showing an institutional urgency to sell into the market weakness. Such behavior is atypical of this generally “countertrend” crowd, and a decisively bearish sign.
Read moreThe deterioration in stock market liquidity remains at the forefront of our concerns and is a key reason that the Major Trend Index is hovering just above its bearish threshold of 0.95...
Read moreWe’ve always emphasized the “weight of the evidence” rather than individual MTI category developments, but we have to concede we’re troubled by the steady deterioration in the two categories that propped up the MTI during the bull’s rally off the February 2016 lows: Momentum and Economic.
Read moreAfter a brief respite last year, EAFE has reverted to its old form by falling 300 basis points behind the S&P 500 so far in 2018. EAFE’s main transgression might simply be that it represents good relative value in a market that’s been rewarding only momentum...
Read moreThe Momentum category rebounded 49 points last week, reflecting small gains across most of the quantitative chart scores…
Read moreTen weeks into 2018, we have already seen three mini-cycles in U.S. equities. A rip-roaring surge in January was followed in early February by one of the shortest corrections in history...
Read moreThe week-over-week decline was the result of big losses in Supply/Demand and Momentum/Breadth/Divergence categories. The Attitudinal category also lost ground.
Read moreValue can’t catch a break. Even a bounce in oil can’t jumpstart the traditionally value-oriented Energy sector. We’ve been sticking to our late bull-market thesis that Growth will outperform, but as we see signs that gains may be limited (or non-existent) going forward, a shift to Value could be in the making.
Read moreBefore rallying back to a more modest loss, the index was down 11.8% from its all-time high on January 26th. Also of note was the volatility—the index moved at least 1% in 12 of the 19 trading days. The S&P 500 had only experienced three 1% daily moves in the five months prior to February.
Read moreOutperforming in up, and now, down months, Growth stocks seem to have the best of both worlds. After an ugly February, Small and Mid Cap Value stocks are now in negative territory YTD.
Read moreDespite dramatic Large Cap outperformance over the last five quarters, our Ratio of Ratios hasn’t strayed more than 4% from its long-term median Small Cap premium of 3%.
Read moreA review of Quality factors, as well as the lower valuations of High Quality stocks, supports the current High Quality cycle amid rising market volatility. The Leverage factor may provide particularly strong backing for High Quality stocks.
Read moreOur Up/Down Ratio held on to its first month gains and now sports a “two-month” reading of 1.97. We’re experiencing a quantity of firms growing YOY EPS that is unmatched by recent history.
Read moreFor the first time in this bull market, defensive stocks failed to provide any semblance of defense during a market correction.
Read moreDepartment Stores have rallied the last four months; Health Care Distributors is one of the cheapest groups we track; Paper & Forest Products is the only Materials group in the Attractive range of the GS Scores.
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