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 April saw a valiant attempt by the U.S. 10-year yield to crack the upper band of the multi-decade downtrend channel (around 3.0%-3.05%).

The Leuthold Core Portfolio and the Leuthold Global Portfolio both lagged their 100% equity benchmarks last month.

Compared to the first three months of 2018, April turned out to be a bit of a snoozer for the S&P 500.  One corner of the index did have a little excitement—Energy stocks. Yes, Energy stocks. The beaten- down, shriveled up sector had its best monthly performance in three years (+9.4%).

Beaten-up Small and Mid Cap Value stocks performed the best during April. In the Mega Cap space, however, Growth continued to outperform.

This observation falls neatly in the middle of our 2% to 7% Small Cap premium range we’ve observed over the last eight months—providing no real “call” for this vignette.

Our first Up/Down Ratio based on 2018 earnings sports a mind-blowing reading of 3.22—the highest “one-month” figure in 35 years of data.

Are Utilities defensives, or are they interest rate plays, or both? We believe the driving influence fluctuates based on market conditions, specifically fear, and the desire for protection in down markets.

Read this week's Major Trend Index.

After some price appreciation mid-month, the S&P 500 ended April right where it started.

In difficult markets, we have become more appreciative of some of life’s small gifts. For example, it’s been quite a while since we’ve heard it argued that this is “the most hated bull market of all time.”

While we’ve emphasized several negative developments within the MTI’s Economic composite in recent months, not all of the evidence leans bearish. Outside of the oil patch, commodities have struggled to make a clear breakout, possibly reflecting the short-term bounce in the dollar.

Athletes aren’t the only ones known to sometimes suffer a “sophomore slump.” Presidents do, too… at least according to the historical verdict of the stock market...

Earnings-related measures have remained healthy, but the more heavily-weighted components related to monetary and interest rate trends continue to migrate towards the negative side of the ledger.

Analysts are still coming to terms with the impact of the big corporate tax cut, as shown by the dispersion still existing across S&P 500 EPS estimates in 2018. But they should also be watching the line item that’s contributed the most to the breakout in profit margins above historical levels: interest expense...

While we’ve always emphasized the importance of the “weight of the evidence” over the individual MTI factor categories, it’s worth highlighting some key differences between the 2018 correction (which saw a loss in the S&P 500 of 10.2% at the February 8th closing low) and the 2015-2016 S&P 500 correction of 14.2%.

Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds have still not breached the 3.00% level that many believe will stick the proverbial “fork” in the secular bond bull market that began in 1981. That could well in happen in the next few weeks, but we believe it’s important to step away from the daily fray and reflect upon the damage that’s already been done.

It’s mystifying that the Momentum work has not deteriorated further during the course of this correction. Despite the -9.3% S&P 500 loss through Friday’s close, the net category reading remains at a moderately bullish level.

After months of research and econometric modeling, we’ve come up with a list of U.S. and foreign industries, companies, and individuals we expect to benefit from a trade war between the U.S. and China.

In light of the remittances they are about to drop in the mail, many readers will find it incredible that the U.S. Treasury has largely sat out the last two years of the stock market and economic upswing.

During each of the last five months, the U.S. economy has shown a broadening array of “late-cycle” characteristics.