Macro Monitor

Market reaction since the election has been right on the money. What we didn’t expect was the speed and the magnitude of the so-called “Trump Trade."

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With the Fed’s December hike priced in, we maintain a Favorable view toward spread products within fixed income.

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The reflation theme got an extra kick after the election. Companies with stronger credit profiles continued to benefit from tighter credit spreads.

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· One bright spot in last month’s lackluster market action was that inflation sensitive assets saw impressive relative returns.

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Regardless of whether the reflation theme continues, high quality spread products should continue to do well.

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The upcoming election is likely to have wide-ranging impacts on both monetary and fiscal policies and we expect election risk to overshadow the Fed policy risk for the time being.

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We maintain our favorable view towards spread products within fixed income, but given the election and the Fed hike risk, caution is warranted.

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Although the spread cushion is thinner than it was a couple years ago, these bonds still offer the attractive combination of quality and spread.

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Whether rates hike in September or December, we know the Fed will be very supportive of the market and the biggest beneficiaries will likely be EM and higher-yielding assets.

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Given the not-too-hot-not-too-cold macro backdrop, we expect the credit rally to continue in the near term and favor spread products within fixed income.

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There is still room for spreads to compress. We maintain our Favorable view of US Investment Grade Corporates.

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We find ourselves in the twilight period where the impact of a rate hike might be waning, while the potential election-year impact might be gaining more influence.

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We expect the search for yield to continue in the near term and favor Higher Quality credits within fixed income.

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The demand for safe spreads remains strong and we maintain our Favorable view on these bonds.

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We think the best guide for Brexit is still the 1992 U.K. exit from the ERM. However, most U.K. assets are more expensive than they were back in 1992, and thus more vulnerable to shocks. 

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With global bond yields plumbing new all-time lows, we continue to favor Higher Quality credits within fixed income.

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The demand for safe spreads is here to stay and we maintain our Favorable view on these bonds.

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Throw anything at them and bonds can shake it off. The multi-decade march toward ever-lower yields seems unstoppable, not even by the zero line.

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A stronger dollar and a weaker Chinese yuan dented the prospects for higher inflation in May.

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