Articles by Phil Segner, CFA Co-Portfolio Manager & Sr. Analyst

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Those complaining about the “Top 1%” controlling all the wealth may finally be getting some satisfaction. Since Halloween, it has been mostly rough sledding for our five-member “4% Club” contingent.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

On a total return basis, the S&P 500 posted its first monthly loss since last April. Downside to median levels narrowed slightly but remain very close to contemporary extremes.

On a total return basis, the S&P 500’s February loss of 0.8% was its first monthly decline since last April. However, the equal-weighted S&P 500 advanced 3.5%. The resulting performance gap, in favor of the average stock, is the largest since April 2009, when the market blasted off the GFC lows.

Since Halloween, RB Value (+14%) has dominated RB Growth (-7%); it was the best four-month stretch for RB Value relative to RB Growth since April 2022. During that time, the change in valuation is unmistakable—with Large Value now much less of a bargain.

The equal-weighted S&P 500’s +4% return in February outperformed the S&P 600’s +2%, pushing the Ratio of Ratio’s valuation gap to its widest margin since September 2024. A declining P/E multiple for the median Small Cap in our L3000 universe was also at play, migrating from 21.4x to 20.0x.

The Up/Down ratio for the second month of Q4 reporting is 1.80. Aside from a slight hiccup last spring, this Up/Down work has consistently grown for the past nine quarters. The vignette has now reached a level that has previously been very difficult to maintain, especially since the GFC.

With S&P 500 Q4 reporting winding down, estimated operating EPS is now 6.9% higher than at the start of the year.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend. 

Read this week's Major Trend.

The Equal Weighted S&P 500 (+3.4%) had its best month versus the S&P 500 Top 10 Index (-0.9%)since March 2025. Poor results coming from MSFT (-11%), AAPL (-5%), and Broadcom (-4%) dragged down the once bulletproof Top 10. The average stock in the S&P 500 has now outperformed the largest ten for three consecutive months, with David beating Goliath by 8.5% during that span.

Since Halloween, RB Value (+12%) has been on a tear compared to RB Growth (-5%)—the best three-month stretch for RB Value relative to RB Growth since the start of 2022.

Despite all the talk about Small Caps ripping higher, the Ratio of Ratios narrowed only 1%. The S&P 600 (best SC proxy for this vignette) started 2026 off with a 5.6% gain. The Equal Weighted S&P 500 (best LC proxy), advanced 3.3%.

The first Up/Down ratio for Q4 is 2.63. Once again, this is another new high for the “one-month” ratio measured back to the amazing earnings growth following the 2020 EPS washout. Given the results of the past three quarters, this “contemporary record” storyline in our Up/Down work is feeling repetitive.