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Read this week's Major Trend. 

Yesterday was the six-month anniversary of the bear market low of 3,577.03 in the S&P 500. We think it’s unlikely the moderate upswing since then represents a new cyclical bull market. However, with the evidence still weighing in at Neutral, we’re not betting the farm on that opinion.

The Core Fund was up 1.2% in March, managing to outperform the strategy’s long equity holdings thanks to superior performance from the fixed income and gold positions.

Read this week's Major Trend. 

We anticipated it for months, and now that it has finally happened, we’re burying the news in the final page of this section. Yes, the last day of March saw the S&P 500 trigger a “low-risk” BUY signal on our Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum algorithm, known elsewhere as the Coppock Curve.

In today’s cycle, we’ve not yet observed the usual pre-election “ramp” in M2 growth. That might help explain why the traditionally hyper-bullish, six-month window beginning at the time of mid-term elections has so far been underwhelming.

This year marks the 25th anniversary of a slew of major bank mergers: Wells Fargo/Norwest, Banc One/First Chicago, NationsBank/BankAmerica, Star Bank/Firstar, First Union/CoreStates Financial, and SunTrust/Crestar Financial. Who knew the KBW Bank Index would celebrate the occasion by returning to its price level of that same era?!

We don’t know enough about banking-system mechanics to conclude if the Fed’s balance-sheet increase associated with March’s bank bailout constitutes a new round of QE. But if it is, we’re skeptical equity investors should celebrate it. In fact, those running Small-Cap portfolios should probably fear it!

At 144 months, this is now the longest Large-Cap cycle on record, but its dominance will have to prolong to eclipse the second-longest leadership phase (1946-1957), in which Large Caps achieved a 190% performance spread above Small Caps.

In recent years, we’ve supplemented our longstanding normalized earnings technique with the simpler method of referencing any past peak in EPS (or, for that matter, trailing peaks in other corporate fundamentals, like cash flow and sales per share).

Early evidence shows the recent banking calamity knocked down already-fragile measures of confidence and activity, as exhibited by the ISM Manufacturing Composite posting a fifth-consecutive reading below 50.

Tightening peaked in Q4-2022, with the BAA yield at 266 bps above its year-earlier level—the most contractionary move since the early 1980s. If the standard lead-time applies, the full impact will be felt in Q4-2023.

Stock market monetary- and liquidity conditions over the last year have been the harshest we’ve seen in a 33-year career, and consistently the largest drag on the Major Trend Index (even overshadowing valuations!).

Could the stock market have already discounted a forthcoming recession?

Despite the Fed’s tough-talk about getting the funds rate above 5%, monetary and liquidity measures are significantly less bearish. Thank SVB depositors, who required a bailout big enough to reverse five months of QT in just two weeks. The market reaction looks like that after September 2019’s Overnight Repo-market turmoil, which forced the Fed to end its first experiment with QT.

Steve Leuthold, the founder of our firm—friend and mentor to everyone on our Leuthold team as well as prior employees of the last 40+ years—passed away last month in Carlsbad, California. He was 85. 

Read this week's Major Trend.

Volatility returned, as two large bank failures had investors questioning growth expectations. Value was hit the hardest; growth was the main beneficiary. 

AAPL (+12%), MSFT (+16%), GOOG (+15%), NVDA (+20%), and META (+21%) all posted tremendous results in March, while the average S&P 500 stock was down 1%. Those five mega-firms, representing 20% of the index weight, were responsible for 80% of last month’s gain and led to the largest monthly performance gap between Cap Weighted and Equal Weighted (4.6% spread) since March-2020, when the disparity was a 5.7% spread.

After a brutal 2022, Growth outdid Value in Q1 by a uniform 8% across all three market-cap tiers. That strength reopened the valuation gap between the two styles, which had been narrowing prior to March.