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This month is the five-year anniversary of the last time Small-Cap and Large-Cap P/E ratios in our L3000 Universe were roughly equivalent. Price returns over the last five years tell most of the story about the widening Small Cap discount: S&P 500 +58%, S&P 600 +21%.

With Q2-23 reporting complete, the ratio reads 1.06. Based on the final numbers recorded for the last six quarters, it looks like the longest late-cycle earnings streak in this vignette’s history (average reading of 1.08).

Despite the “Lower-Risk” signal, the surge in bond yields and a higher U.S. dollar have materially tightened financial conditions: Caution is strongly recommended.

Typically, duration contracts when rates go up, all else equal. The Magnificent Seven, however, saw their duration going the wrong way: They seem to be the only cohort to see duration lengthening and are now more risky than a year ago.

The dominating and overwhelming gains by the Magnificent Seven have made it nearly impossible for most traditional equity factors to excel. Only two styles have managed to surpass the S&P 500’s YTD return: Growth and Quality—and both have healthy exposures to the Magnificent Seven.

In a year when the Magnificent Seven has epitomized the concept of price momentum, investors who spotted that phenomenon and employed a momentum ETF to capitalize on the trend were not rewarded: Owning MTUM or SPMO not only forewent the tech titan rally, they both badly lagged the S&P 500.

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September’s 5% haircut in the S&P 500 marked its worst month of performance this year. The dip in the market, accompanied by steady-to slightly rising EPS estimates, translated to similar trims for the downside figures.

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Join us for a Zoom Call with Chief Investment Officer, Doug Ramsey where he will share his thoughts and observations on today's market and what he sees looking ahead.

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If uncertainty is the bane of investors everywhere, then the fear of large losses in a bear market is the boogeyman hiding in the closet. The threat of an agonizing downturn often leads investors to carry lower equity weights in their balanced portfolios than might be advisable, and even drives them to hold excess cash to avoid the risk of sizable declines.

ETF families have responded to this anxiety with a fund design that takes some downside risk off the table and may enable investors to tiptoe into equities even when they suspect a selloff might be around the corner. Known as “buffer”, “defined outcome”, or “target outcome” funds, these ETFs utilize an options collar overlay to trim the upside and downside tails of the underlying asset’s return distribution, thereby giving nervous investors a more comfortable way to pick up some equity exposure during riskier times.

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The Core Fund was down 1.1% in August, as equities and fixed income both posted negative returns for the month. 

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The GS Scores help Leuthold Select Industries portfolio identify underappreciated themes that can turn into multi-year holdings. Managed Health Care has been a holding for over 13 years, while Semiconductor Equipment (seven years), and Homebuilding (six years) have also been long-term winning positions.

While it was a small jump, from #6 to #5 in the sector composite ranks, Financials might be seeing the start of overall improvement. Conversely, Materials and Energy continued to drop in the latest ratings, as fundamental measures deteriorated.

The market’s preference swung back to the familiar mega-cap names in August—even as the index broke a winning streak of five consecutive months. Better in up markets and better in down markets is a tough combination to beat. Nvidia (+238%) has contributed as much to S&P 500 performance as Apple (+45%) in 2023, despite starting the year with one-fifth of AAPL’s market cap.

After mostly sitting out July’s rally, Royal Blue Growth was the only style box to advance in August. Its YTD advantage over Royal Blue Value is back to 20%.