Latest Research

Maybe it's a Minnesota year - the Twins win the World Series and Northwest Airlines leads the pack terms of customer complaints! Also, tracking the impact of Black October around the world.

The stock market is no longer radically overvalued. The current readings on these benchmarks approximate the readings at some past cyclical bear market lows. History tells us that new cyclical bull markets do not always have to come from grossly undervalued levels.

After an ominous five-point sell off in the first part of October, the Treasury market turned on a dime and blasted upward, running up 10 points in four days. But not all bond market sectors participated. It was a flight to quality.

Don Weeden’s two-in-one solution to the debt crisis…Do dividends matter anymore?

Our view remains unchanged in terms of prudent investment strategy. While trading opportunities may abound in the next few weeks, both long and short, the stock market is downright dangerous.

A performance run down for our sectors ranked by September performance, with 3rd quarter and year to date performance also included.

This last month, a client and I were discussing what the stock market was like back in the 1960’s and early 1970’s. We saw a number of parallels with the current market.

Our published Major Trend Index has been registering negative readings since spring. But what happens if we remove the Intrinsic Value measures from the Index?

 “Almost Bonds”, is viewed as a tactical theme and is basically a defensive strategy that will probably be employed for a year or less. “Graying of America”, is a secular theme that could have a productive investment life of five years or longer.

The bond market held its own in the middle two weeks of September, but the first week and the last week of the month were downright nasty.

A Swede jumps ship at the Leuthold Port, a month of much research recapped, hypocrites on the Hill and Airline miseries.

Program trading has recently re-emerged as a major market influence. Extraordinary hour to hour volatility has returned. It appears that portfolio insurance futures selling is with us again as a significant volatility force.

A performance run down for our sectors, including experimental, ranked by August performance.

Here are some of the client questions that have been raised recently. Perhaps some of you have some of these same questions.

The bond market edged tentatively higher in the first half of August, but lost it all in the last two weeks of the month. T-bonds made new lows for the year in the last days of August.

The bond market held Its own for the first few weeks of July, but prices took a sharp dive on July 21 and drifted lower for the remainder of the month.

Bring on the Mystics, Special Situation Research...Correction, Correction, Australian Bonds...The Right Guys Won, The Japan Factor

Well, I have to admit it, this writer counts himself as one of the befuddled. Based on the calls in late June, a number of clients are also in the peer group. So, in terms of the shorter-term market outlook, I’m afraid it is a case of the befuddled leading the befuddled...or not leading the befuddled?

This morning on television, I heard a Wall Street pundit proclaim that “the stock market has a bottomless pool of liquidity”. No doubt, when investor fear replaces investor greed, you will hear about the stock market being a “bottomless pit”.

Our diversified index of oil related stocks is now up 110% from its lows of last summer, although still 22% below its 1980 peak. However, the relative strength line is now approaching its 1980 to date downtrend line.