Latest Research

The bond market marked time for the first three weeks of July, but came on strong in the last five trading days. July gains in bonds did not keep pace with stocks, but most bonds were up a point or so for the month.

The Early Warning Work: Have We Found The Keys To The Kingdom?....The Wisdom Of Paul Miller....New Zealand and Australia Updates

The bull market is still healthy according to our Major Trend Index. The current weakness amounts to nothing more than an intermediate correction, the correction our Early Warning work anticipated when it provided a sell signal back on June 6th and reaffirmed on June 27th.

New highs for the market are still expected in 1989. But I think it is quite likely that the 1987 high will, for a while at least, be a significant resistance zone.

A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by June performance.

The consensus way to play the “Graying of America” has been via health care related stocks. But the “Graying of America” is not just a play on health care for the aged.

A preview of our new U.S. inflation histograms, soon to be regular features of our quarterly Benchmarks publication.

In June, the bond market appeared to be unstoppable. After a pause mid-month, prices came roaring back edging into new high ground at month end.

Aussie Bonds Attractive Once Again...MTA Seminar...Copper Update...The Age Wave Consumer...Bullish? Gold Charts

One of our clients recently said, “I suppose you guys will turn bearish now that we have all come to agree with you.” Well, not yet. The majority can be right for a while. Sometimes it pays to be with the crowd. Our work tells us this is one of those times.

The Major Trend (cyclical bull market) is still healthy, but chances of an intermediate correction have increased.

A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by May performance.

The following chart and commentary regularly appear in the appendix. Since we are adding a new growth component to the equity model this issue we thought this work deserved a place “up front”.

With Aussie Commonwealth bond yields again up around 14% and the Aussie dollar down to $0.75 U.S., we are moving part of the fixed income portion from both the asset allocation models back into the Aussie bond market.

Aussie bonds appear to be a very attractive investment. But what effect will a falling (or rising) Australian dollar in a variety of interest rate environments have on U.S. investors who buy Australian bonds?

For quite some time this publication has had a pretty good feel for the bond market. But May surprised me. My expectation was a stronger market early in the May followed by a correction.

Concerned About The Deficit And Fiscal Irresponsibility But Still Bullish On Stocks...Emotion Can Be The Investor’s Worst Enemy...Our Permanent Congress?...What Ever Happened To The Gramm-Rudman Targets For The Deficit...New Zealand Update

April’s stock market action surprised the majority. The “surprising” strength in the stock market was fueled by a 50 basis point decline in short term rates, continuing evidence of an economic slowdown and less terrifying inflation numbers.

After the 1987 crash, a goodly portion of the program crowd retired. But now, some 18 months after the debacle, a major part of the program crowd is clearly out of retirement, back in action.

A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by April performance.