Latest Research

U.S. healthcare cost containment? Still a long way to go. The 1995 “Tax Freedom Day” scorecard and the top 10 reasons the market will never go down.

Our “Testing the Yield” histogram supports a cautious equity market posture based on historical limited upside potential in periods of low dividend yield levels.

Testing indicates that there is really only minimal stock market analytical value to the concept of “real” dividend yields. It is of very limited use in identifying overvalued markets on a short term basis. Longer term, we found no stock market analytical value here.

Powerful bond rally in May and early June started to lose its sizzle later in the month, as less negative economic news diminished chances of imminent Fed easing.

Frustration Index reaches new high!

The equity crowd is now having some second thoughts: What is good for bonds may not be good for stocks.

It could be different this time...For a while. Equities at 24%—below normal minimums... Valuations still look excessive...Major Trend still negative. Market still going up.

At this point, it’s quite disappointing as to how the Major Trend Index work has functioned, especially in the past several months. It appears that too much lead time may have crept into the overall discipline.

A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by year to date performance.

T-bonds are now clearly in the lead in the 1995 Performance Derby. Do dividend yields matter? Polling the pros in Baltimore and Boston.

The Leuthold Group has been intensifying its fund flow analytical work because we believe it is now the most important U.S. stock market internal factor.

Mutual fund investors less enthusiastic…Redemptions about matched inflows at the end of May. Supply of equities is starting to build, while cash holdings in funds is diminishing.

Check out the new issue of The Numbers Game for a list of 120 companies with “Red Flags” which could potentially lead to earnings disappointments. Reminders and insights from one of Wall Street’s best: Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterioo & Company.

Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.

At this point, we do not see any clear signs that historical earnings consistency leads to outperformance relative to inconsistent earnings companies.

Corporate earnings growth was well below the trendline during the period of 1988-1993. Overall, earnings growth is now moving back in line with long term trends.

Our 100% short sale program has been posting strong positive returns in recent weeks, even though the market averages have continued to edge higher. This often indicates a general market decline is close at hand.

Equities now at 24%—below normal minimums. Valuations still look excessive. Major Trend improved, but still negative. Is it 1987 revisited, or a “new era”? It could be different this time, for a while.

With U.S. spending on defense now at an all-time low and no big potential wars on the horizon, why would we want to own these company stocks?

The DJIA continued to push to new highs during the last month, rising 3.9%. This brings the year to date performance for the DJIA to +12.7%.