Latest Research

Continued strength in equities offsets the weakness in credits and commodities to arrive at an essentially flat reading.

Our AdvantHedge gross composite lost 0.8% in November, outpacing the inverse performance of the S&P 500 (+2.7%) and the NASDAQ (+3.7%), but not the volatile Russell 2000 (+0.1%).

Select Industries gross composite gained 3.8% in November and is now up 16.7% YTD.

We increased equity exposure back above 50% in mid-November as a result of the MTI returning to Neutral.

Record issuance and oil-related weakness combined to drive the spreads wider but we remain Favorable on these bonds for now.

The S&P 500 gained 2.5% (price only) in November.

Domestic equity ETF net  cash flows have been positive for the past five of six weeks, while domestic equity mutual fund net flows have been negative in four of the past five.

A new theme emerging within our GS Scores—Retail related industry groups are flocking to the upper rankings of the scores.

We don’t yet know whether our second-half adjustments to equity exposure will prove premature or just plain wrong. Our tactical funds remain positioned with below-average net equity exposure of about 50%.

Our GS Scores currently rank Information Technology as the second highest rated among the ten broad sectors.

A look at U.S. companies’ global IT market dominance, and the key factors that drive the competitive landscape.

Homefurnishing Retail, Apparel Retail, Apparel Accessories & Textiles

Extreme market viewpoints get the headlines, but it’s baked into our disciplines that we will (occasionally) be noncommittal.

Market gains have been less broad than in 2012 and 2013; market direction and leadership have been mismatched; and quantitative factors have been choppy.

The median S&P 500 stock is now expensive enough that we’re able to estimate its potential downside to prior bull market highs! Based on an average of four valuation measures, the median stock needs to drop about –11% to match the typical valuations at the eve of a cyclical bear market.

Government accounting on everything ranging from the CPI, to the budget deficit, to even the unemployment rate is constantly assailed as being too rosy. So when a government report occasionally paints a less optimistic picture than the consensus one, we’re inclined to sit up and take notice (especially when we agree with it).

The S&P 500 record median profit margin of 10.3% is now almost a full percentage point above the last cycle’s peak of 9.4% (second quarter of 2007). Trends across S&P sectors are not as uniform as one might expect, though, with only half of the ten sectors last quarter at profitability levels that exceeded their 2001-2007 expansion highs.

The dollar’s moonshot in recent months has resuscitated a stock market leadership argument we haven’t heard for a long time.

While we expect an eventual break in this relationship, today Emerging Market equities are following, fairly tightly, the cycle of industrial commodities—a cycle that rolled over (on a secular basis, we believe) in 2011.