Latest Research

Inflation and inflation expectations are key inputs to central banks’ policy decision process. Divergent policies have very different impacts on inflation.

Lower energy prices will benefit the paper industry as it is among the most energy intensive of Materials groups. Yet, global implications may produce a headwind, offsetting the benefit of lower oil costs.

Small Cap Premium Plunges To 5%

Factor performance reversed course in February, with most factors performing the opposite of how they have over the last six months.

An already overvalued stock market is likely to become more overvalued in the short to intermediateterm. If the market peaks out here, it will have pulled a fast one on virtually all of stock market history.

We are leaning towards a more favorable outcome for risky assets but staying alert.

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Growth Stocks Dominating Value

The stock market generated enough positive evidence by the second week of February to knock us from our comfortable perch on the fence. We covered a portion of our equity hedges on February 12th, bringing net equity exposure in the Core and Global Funds up to 58% from the 50% level that had prevailed since November.

The bull’s 72-month lifespan now rates as the fourth-longest among all 23 DJIA bull markets since 1900, and the cumulative price gain of +179% ranks sixth.

Our longer-term bear market forecast and a temporarily positive stock market stance aren’t mutually exclusive.

Transports now find themselves in a three-month RS downtrend; it’s too early to tell if this is an important message. Leading up to 14 of the last 16 bull market tops, Transports underperformed for a six to 12-month period prior to the final bull market high.

Mario Draghi will commemorate the global bull market’s sixth anniversary on March 9th with the initiation of a QE bond purchase program of 60 billion euros per month. Our own celebration has been subdued by comparison.

We wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 Financials require a recovery period just as long as NASDAQ's.

Stock market Margin Debt enjoyed a brief phase of notoriety when it eclipsed its 2007 high just over a year ago, then it retreated into obscurity. Now it may finally be telling us something.

The Street’s most clever invention is “12-month forward operating earnings” because the stock market invariably appears cheap on the basis of such inflated estimates.

While we own Apple stock across all of our quantitative long equity strategies, we’ll admit to having mixed feelings when the company shot up to an S&P 500 index weighting of just over four percent last month (4.04%).

Issuance surged in recent weeks as companies rushed to lock in low rates before expected rate hikes.

Our Equal Weighted measurement slightly outperformed the Cap Weighted index and now leads by 50 bps for the year.