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Latest Research

Mid Cap Value stocks have been the place to be for the first half of 2016—up almost 9% YTD. Growth stocks are still relatively cheap versus Value among Small Caps and the Royal Blue segment.

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Small Caps are selling at a 5% relative valuation discount using non-normalized trailing operating earnings. In the last two years, this forward estimate increased the Large Cap P/E ratio from 16.4 to 18.4, while the Small Cap measure shrunk from 20.2 to 17.4.

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With the last month of Q1 2016 earnings reports in the books, the Up/Down Ratio sports a final reading of 1.07. This matches our Q4 2015 figure but is still the lowest level see over the last 24 quarters.

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Factor performance was muted prior to the vote; it turned volatile in the remaining days of June following. Momentum was the only factor to work before and after June 23rd — the day of the Brexit vote.

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The Major Trend Index edged up 0.02 points to a ratio of 1.04, using data through the week ended July 1st, and remains within its 0.95-1.05 neutral zone for the second consecutive week.

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The Major Trend Index fell 0.12 to a Neutral ratio of 1.02 based on data for the week ended June 24th, led entirely by a decline in the Momentum/Breadth/Divergence category.

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The Major Trend Index fell 0.07 to a ratio of 1.14 based on data for the week ended June 17th, reflecting another sizable weekly decline in the Attitudinal category.

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The Major Trend Index edged down 0.03 points to a ratio of 1.21 based on data for the week ended June 10th, triggered mainly by an 80-point drop in the Attitudinal category.

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In a reversal of factor performance, Value underperformed while everything else worked well. 

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Jun 07 2016

The demand for safe spreads is still strong and we maintain our Favorable view on these bonds.

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The real test for risky assets lies immediately ahead with central bank meetings, the Brexit vote, and the Spanish election later in the month. We continue to favor Higher Quality credits within fixed income.

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A stronger dollar and a weaker Chinese yuan dented the prospects for higher inflation in May.

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Throw anything at them and bonds can shake it off. The multi-decade march toward ever-lower yields seems unstoppable, not even by the zero line.

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Materials leapt five spots to #3 in our broad sector rankings. Industrials remains the highest rated sector.

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Are Glamour Growth stocks a good investment? Using data from the past 30 years, we found very different outcomes depending on the duration of investment. The best results are attained with a long-term holding period in mind.

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Following a brief re-admittance to the “Four Percent Club,” the value of Apple declined by the equivalent of one General Electric or two IBMs in the span of just over 14 months.

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Despite recent bounce among stocks in the Energy sector, the GS Scores still rate Energy groups poorly.

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We’re tactically bullish, but among the twelve “Charts That Worry Us” published in the April Green Book, we’ll concede there are a few that still worry us.

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We’ve said before that one of Wall Street’s great inventions is the “forward operating earnings” estimate for the S&P 500, because it results in a P/E ratio that invariably sounds reasonable (if not outright cheap). But this already-misleading EPS metric has become even more so in recent years because of the proliferation of non-GAAP “adjusted EPS” reporting practices.

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Breadth underlying the 4-month upswing has been stronger than that observed during any other rally leg since 2013. Despite just a 14% correction in the S&P 500 from its peak, a new VLT “BUY” signal was triggered. Failed signals are relatively rare, the last one occurred in December 2001.

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